Gaslamp Book Club: The Bill James Handbook 2010

by Dex on Nov 13, 2009 7:56 AM PST Comment 52 comments

I've always liked big baseball books, or at least, I've liked the idea of big baseball books. Tomes of base-ball knowledge!

Take this scene from a little known film about baseball:

Now, while you may have been paying attention to the moving monologue performed by Sir James Earl Jones, I was trying to determine exactly which page of the Baseball Encyclopedia he was on before being so rudely interrupted.

So what is a big baseball book lover to do? If you're me, then you and me are currently reading The Bill James Handbook 2010, which we recently had a preview for.

I know we looked at the 2010 hitter previews in the book before, but the much more interesting things are the plethora of statistics gathered and all of the imaginarily colorful black and white tables.

Like take for example the section on Manufactured Runs. Bill James' definition of a manufactured run is any run where at least 2 of the 4 total bases needed for a run come from something other than station to station baseball. When Adrian Gonzalez gets a base hit and then requires three more base hits in a row to score, Bill James considers that the opposite of a manufactured run.

However, when other teams besides the Padres get a player on base, steal second, then score on a single, that counts as a manufactured run.

So, knowing that manufactured runs sound like they'd be pretty fun to watch and would be effective ways of scoring runs, does it surprise you to know that the Padres were tied for third to last in all of baseball in manufactured runs (130 manufactured runs). That's a poorly written sentence, but basically, the Cubs and the Pirates were the only two teams who manufactured fewer runs (123 and 121 respectively).

Interestingly enough, the book also breaks down the number of times players participated in a manufactured run and despite the Padres only managing 130 manufactured, our own Everth Cabrera participated in 26 manufactured runs, which is among the top 10 in the NL. Anthony Keith Gwynn Jr and Chase Headley are second and third on the Padres with 19 and 15 contributions respectively.

So, what does that mean? What do we do with that?

If you're like me, you use the book to try to find stats to explain why you didn't find the Padres interesting this season and Manufactured Runs is a terrific one. Now, when people ask me why I got bored with the team, I have statistics to back me up.

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Isn't this the guy who predicted a combined 1000 ABs for Giles and Lrod next season for the Padres?

Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 13, 2009 8:27 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Aren't you the guy that said everybody likes Curt Schilling?

by Dex on Nov 13, 2009 8:36 AM PST up reply actions 4 recs

Schilling?!?!

"jbox does not drink coffee, as it makes him clean house big time." ~Kev

by TheThinGwynn on Nov 13, 2009 12:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

i see you trollin

Big kid tested, mother fucker approved

by CurbEnthusiasm on Nov 13, 2009 9:57 AM PST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

The problem with manufactured runs is:

You score less runs making outs on purpose, than you do trying to get hits.

by field39 on Nov 13, 2009 8:28 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

It's not just bunts and sac flies

It also includes advancing an extra base in ways other than a hit. So, advancing on a steal, moving from first to third on a hit, scoring from second on a base hit, etc.

by Dex on Nov 13, 2009 8:34 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

McAnulty

comes to mind

by strummer on Nov 13, 2009 10:14 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

That is true

But field is basically hinting at the main issue with that statistic and that’s that it doesn’t balance the good stuff with the bad. Baseball Prospectus has a stat call Equivalent Baserunning Runs that gives you the good with the bad. However, it doesn’t really suit Dex’s purposes since I assume a Padre getting thrown out trying to go 1st to 3rd is probably as exciting as actually getting runs out of it. So, I just shut up about this now.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Nov 14, 2009 12:29 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Is true too

I don’t think it would be the only statistic to consider in my Enjoyment Index, but I think it’s a decent one to start off with. Besides, Bill James and his crew made the statistic up just to try to quantify what broadcasters mean when they say stuff like, “That’s how you manufacture a run!”

Basically, I’m betting he made the statistic up to piss off Joe Morgan.

by Dex on Nov 14, 2009 10:58 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

If I was Bill James I would come up with any "statistic" I could

just to piss off Joe Morgan.

.400 in '94

by SDPads_1 on Nov 14, 2009 12:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Does the mean

The Offical Dex Enjoyment Index has no correlation with the Padres actually winning a game? If so, I say we hire a midget to play catcher (he won’t have to squat!) and replace all bats with frozen fish.

by DougOLis on Nov 15, 2009 5:33 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Scoring from second and going first to third are part of the standard matchup

and when done correctly result in very few outs. Forcing the action via the bunt, hit and run, and the stolent base are completely different, in that they result in a virtual plethora of outs. Every time an announcer says that a manager avoided a double play by forcing his player to swing at bad pitch and hit gound ball, I want to scream.

What all of the fancy sabermetrics generally show, is that baseball is a simple game. You win by winning the pitcher / hitter matchup. Forcing the action, generally makes you do worse, not better.
I get that people love the stole base, but when you get thrown out for the third out, odds are you aren’t going to score a run that inning.

by field39 on Nov 13, 2009 8:59 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

who reads this bill james garbage?

i go to borders in mission valley, flip to the Padres section and usually laugh, scoff, and frown upon his predictions. other than that, bill james’ stuff is largely crap.

by Kozak on Nov 13, 2009 9:54 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

He doesn’t even believe that Kouz is the greatest 3b of all time. It shows how ignorant Mr James is.

by strummer on Nov 13, 2009 10:05 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

i know its an outrage

i mean his glove is already in cooperstown

by Kozak on Nov 13, 2009 10:08 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I HAVE NEVER EVER HEARS OF BILL JAMES

Therefore his opinions are wrong

by anthony on Nov 13, 2009 12:21 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs

I know right

The 1980s called, they want their handbook back.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Nov 14, 2009 12:29 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

most people dont read books anymore

by Duke Street Kings on Nov 13, 2009 10:15 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Books are sooooo 1997!

by Steve (Grey Suit) on Nov 13, 2009 10:58 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Can I download it on my Kindle?

by Drama on Nov 13, 2009 11:44 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I can tell you with 100% certainty

you are correct. They do not.

Thank you for waving at me.

by Winfield's Ghost on Nov 13, 2009 11:46 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Three Amigos was so great

I wonder if that’s The Singing Bush???!!!

Thank you for waving at me.

by Winfield's Ghost on Nov 13, 2009 11:46 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

by Drama on Nov 13, 2009 11:52 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I... think it was a mail plane...

by Dugout Dude on Nov 13, 2009 12:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I am so confused by this thread

This is like an absurdist play… only it is not a play.

Viva Los Three Amigos!

-Zen Blade

by Zen Blade on Nov 13, 2009 11:58 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

“We accept the fact that we aren’t your normal stats-driven baseball blog. But we think you’re crazy to tell us who you think we should be.”

This blog has devolved into UT like, uncerebral blabber

by soulSD on Nov 13, 2009 12:16 PM PST reply actions 1 recs

Nice.

by Drama on Nov 13, 2009 12:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Stats are used like a drunk uses a lamp post

More for support than for illumination.

Darren Smith told me that.

Isn't it enough to know that I ruined a pony making a gift for you? ◔ヮ◔
Uncommon Sportsman :: Absurdity in play

by Axion on Nov 13, 2009 12:29 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

"Oh, people can come up with statistics to prove anything, Kent. 14% of people know that."

"And now for something completely different"

by Boilermaker19 on Nov 13, 2009 12:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Isn't that a Costas quote?

"jbox does not drink coffee, as it makes him clean house big time." ~Kev

by TheThinGwynn on Nov 13, 2009 12:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

That's a Bill James quote about how conventional sportswriters use stats.

by brewer090 on Nov 13, 2009 1:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

That quote pre dates James by over 100 years

It has been attributred to Andrew Lang

by field39 on Nov 13, 2009 1:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

YES!

by strummer on Nov 13, 2009 1:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Bill James is 224 years old.

by brewer090 on Nov 13, 2009 2:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I won't believe that until I hear Darren Smith say it.

splogblotcotdom.blogspot.com

by theodore donald kerabatsos on Nov 13, 2009 4:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Seriously

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 13, 2009 6:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Weren't you guys going to post the Padres pitchers projections.

You did the hitter projections a few weeks ago.

by brewer090 on Nov 13, 2009 11:22 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Joey Hamilton and Andy Ashby will combine for 350 IP

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 13, 2009 11:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think we're going to need a good here out of this here Tewksbury fellow

And I think Fernando still has something left in the tank. And hopefully that young whippersnapper Trevor Hoffman can finally establish himself as top closer.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Nov 14, 2009 12:33 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs