San Diego Padres Predictions from the Bill James Handbook 2010

by Dex on Oct 21, 2009 10:41 PM PDT

I've got a sneak peak at the new Bill James Handbook 2010 and I want to go through and check out what we can look forward to next season. Bill James has been putting these handbooks together forevs and I always look at them with an eye towards who might do what, but also an eye towards pretending that I have an even better predictive model using the guts of a chicken splayed out over a burning Ouija board.

Let's check it...

	Age	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	RC	RC27	BB	SO	SB	CS	SB%	Avg	OBP	Slg	OPS
Alfonzo,Eliezer	31	64	189	49	10	0	7	19	25	23	4.27	6	48	1	0	1	0.259	0.286	0.423	0.709
Blanco,Henry	38	82	228	51	11	0	6	22	23	23	3.38	20	52	0	0	0	0.224	0.286	0.351	0.637
Blanks,Kyle	23	142	524	145	23	3	25	79	93	89	6.07	66	140	3	2	0.6	0.277	0.362	0.475	0.837
Cabrera,Everth	23	145	545	146	29	11	3	90	44	74	4.68	67	117	37	12	0.76	0.268	0.353	0.378	0.731
Eckstein,David	35	128	444	120	21	1	3	57	35	49	3.91	34	40	4	2	0.67	0.27	0.337	0.342	0.68
Giles,Brian	39	92	292	77	17	1	7	40	36	43	5.18	47	36	2	1	0.67	0.264	0.371	0.401	0.772
Gonzalez,Adrian	28	161	614	171	37	2	35	97	106	117	6.87	87	127	1	0	1	0.279	0.372	0.516	0.888
Gonzalez,Edgar	32	63	112	30	6	0	3	13	13	15	4.7	11	22	1	1	0.5	0.268	0.344	0.402	0.746
Gwynn,Tony	27	88	212	56	8	2	1	29	14	24	3.9	22	32	10	4	0.71	0.264	0.336	0.335	0.671
Headley,Chase	26	149	528	150	36	3	17	72	72	87	5.94	63	129	8	3	0.73	0.284	0.365	0.455	0.819
Hundley,Nick	26	84	264	60	14	1	10	30	38	31	3.93	25	64	3	1	0.75	0.227	0.297	0.402	0.698
Kouzmanoff,Kevin	28	144	512	141	32	2	20	59	84	74	5.17	29	95	1	1	0.5	0.275	0.327	0.463	0.79
Rodriguez,Luis	30	95	244	62	13	1	2	27	20	27	3.84	28	21	1	1	0.5	0.254	0.331	0.34	0.671
Salazar,Oscar	32	88	246	72	16	1	9	31	40	40	5.94	18	33	1	1	0.5	0.293	0.341	0.476	0.817
Venable,Will	27	120	395	99	18	2	13	53	48	50	4.36	34	95	7	2	0.78	0.251	0.313	0.405	0.718

OK. So what does all of this mean? I'll tell you. It means we're effed.

I mean, maybe we aren't effed-effed, but still. Didn't this team feel faster in August and September? Didn't it feel more powerful? Was that just an illusion?

If this is the projection for our hitters, what does our starting lineup looking like at this point?

Is that really it? Doesn't it look weird to look at?

Bright Spots:

Everth Cabrera and Kyle Blanks both are predicted to up their production and both are young dudes. Everth is especially exciting for his speed and Kyle is exciting for the power. It's like Mantle and Maris! Blanks will probably end up protecting Adrian before the year is out, but probably not to start the season.
Adrian Gonzalez, while not predicted to put 40 over the fence next year, is still slated for another 100+ RBI season with close to 100 runs. Also, the doubles total bodes well for producing runs, but not so well for the needy children, dependent on these sadistic charities who will only donate money when Adrian puts a home run charge in the ball.

Mehs:

Kevin Kouzmanoff's numbers look kinda nice and I'm sure he'll total pretty close, but (sorry Kouz fans) I'm also thinking that a lot of the numbers will be put up in garbagy, unclutchy ways.
Wouldn't it be nice to have a catcher?
Something about Tony Gwynn's line looks really depressing.
Brian Giles is still on the team? How is he predicted to have so many ABs? Am I reading this right?

Tomorrow, let's look at pitchers. That should be scary fun.

In the meantime, the handbook is available for preorder. It would be rad of you to purchase the book through us. Maybe let's take some time right now to make really super bold predictions and then rub them in Bill James's face when ours turn out terrific.

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Comments

His Blanks prediction is AWESOME

by JollyWaffle on Oct 21, 2009 11:28 PM PDT reply actions

'Tomorrow, let's look at pitchers. That should be scary fun.'

If this guy has Giles on the team, he probably still has Hoffy too. :^(

by eastbaysd on Oct 22, 2009 12:22 AM PDT reply actions

Just saying that some of these guys he has up there aren't even on the team anymore

shows how much he knows.

Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
A kid who has a unicorn ranch in his room cannot call other people weird. Yes, we know about "Rancho Unicorno."

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Oct 22, 2009 7:28 AM PDT reply actions

He probably didn't even go to law school

Isn't it enough to know that I ruined a pony making a gift for you? ◔ヮ◔
Uncommon Sportsman :: Absurdity in play

by Axion on Oct 22, 2009 9:18 AM PDT up reply actions 3 recs

shows how much you know tec

Homeboy throw in the towel
Your girl got dicked by Ricky Powell

by CurbEnthusiasm on Oct 22, 2009 2:25 PM PDT up reply actions

Kouz

I will now only refer to him as Unclutchy.

Thank you for waving at me.

by Winfield's Ghost on Oct 22, 2009 7:48 AM PDT reply actions

Uh, Seriously?

Bill James is probably the one of the most influential guys in the biz.

Often, when a book such as this goes to press, it will provide the last team a player played for.

by Upset customer on Oct 22, 2009 8:27 AM PDT reply actions

Uh, seriously?

You don’t even know how to use the reply button? BTW, anyone who thinks Brian Giles will get 292 ABs next season doesn’t know very much about baseball I’ll tell ya what.

Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
A kid who has a unicorn ranch in his room cannot call other people weird. Yes, we know about "Rancho Unicorno."

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Oct 22, 2009 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions

i could see the A's signing him

to see if he still walks

by Kozak on Oct 22, 2009 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions

The A's are retarded

by jbox on Oct 22, 2009 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

absolutely

by Kozak on Oct 22, 2009 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions

Bill

I’ll put my money on Bill’s prediction.

by RoyalsFan on Oct 22, 2009 12:01 PM PDT up reply actions

Can you get us an interview?

I know you know a thing or two about that.

by Dex on Oct 22, 2009 12:56 PM PDT up reply actions

Interview

Working on it……..

by RoyalsFan on Oct 22, 2009 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions

You are nuts

by Dex on Oct 22, 2009 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions

am i dex? am i?

theodore donald kerabatsos just showed all he did was average the numbers of the last 3 seasons, hence why giles has so many ABs

Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
A kid who has a unicorn ranch in his room cannot call other people weird. Yes, we know about "Rancho Unicorno."

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Oct 22, 2009 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions

what does that prove about your sanity?

Isn't it enough to know that I ruined a pony making a gift for you? ◔ヮ◔
Uncommon Sportsman :: Absurdity in play

by Axion on Oct 22, 2009 3:15 PM PDT up reply actions

I'm pretty sure

Bill James did a little bit more than just average three seasons worth of statistics.

We’re going to need that interview…

"Get on board early," Black said, alluding to, what he feels, is a crop of up-and-coming players.

"I would tell those fans that we're going to play good baseball. We're going to play hard. We're going to have exciting young players..." -Bud Black

by The Kipper on Oct 22, 2009 4:58 PM PDT up reply actions

I can't decide if you are for real

or this is some act.

552

by wrveres on Oct 23, 2009 2:52 AM PDT up reply actions

Correct.

James is saying Giles will get somewhere around 292 ABs for some team next year. He’s not saying it will be with the Padres.

Plus, his predictions are based mostly on formulas, which means maybe James thinks Giles won’t play next year or maybe he thinks he will get 500 plate appearaces. Giles career is at a very odd point right now. I’m pretty sure Giles does want to play next year, so who knows …

by brewer090 on Oct 22, 2009 5:06 PM PDT up reply actions

Plus Alfonzo and LRod were both released

and have become free agents.

We're boned.

by Zach (maestro876) on Oct 22, 2009 8:46 AM PDT reply actions

yes, players are grouped with their previous year's team.

It’s hard to know who will play for what team when the book comes out on Nov. 1 and it’s getting some early previews before the World Series is over.

by brewer090 on Oct 22, 2009 5:08 PM PDT up reply actions

And any prediction that has Kouzmanoff's OBP

over .300 can’t be serious.

We're boned.

by Zach (maestro876) on Oct 22, 2009 8:47 AM PDT reply actions

his career on-base is .308. last year: .302.

by brewer090 on Oct 22, 2009 11:04 PM PDT up reply actions

kouz needs to be batting

6th or 7th in the lineup, or better yet just trade the guy. james’ power number for agone are a bit weak IMO.

by Kozak on Oct 22, 2009 9:09 AM PDT reply actions

Put Headley at third

those numbers look pretty good….plus a new outfielder is easier to come by (and cheaper) than a corner infielder.

by TheFan09 on Oct 22, 2009 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions

and replace the greatest fielding 3B evah?

552

by wrveres on Oct 23, 2009 2:54 AM PDT up reply actions

Looks like a very sophisticated formula...

If you take Adrian’s last 3 seasons and average them, you get almost the exact same numbers as James’ predictions.

3-year average — .279/.371/.519/.891 35 hr’s 106 rbi 35 2b’s 98 runs
James’ prediction — .279/.372/.516/.888 35 hr’s 106 rbi 37 2b’s 97 runs

Bold predictions, Bill.

splogblotcotdom.blogspot.com

by theodore donald kerabatsos on Oct 22, 2009 9:16 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs

His predictions are based on the last three years and the players age most of the time.

Plus, Adrian has proven to be a very consistent player.

by brewer090 on Oct 22, 2009 5:10 PM PDT up reply actions

My predictions

for how Matt Bush will perform next year.

"When the going gets tough... TheGrandHatching pops in later." -- WG

by TheGrandHatching on Oct 22, 2009 11:35 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs

This video has been removed due to terms of use violation.

That’s you know it was good.

by Drama on Oct 25, 2009 7:26 PM PDT up reply actions

in-depth analysis?

on my GLB?

DODGERS, RED SOX, YANKEES, BRONCOS, PATRIOTS and RAIDERS all suck. Especially the Dodgers.

by LJbumfool on Oct 22, 2009 11:40 AM PDT reply actions

Next thing you know

Peter Gammons will start reading this blog.

"Get on board early," Black said, alluding to, what he feels, is a crop of up-and-coming players.

"I would tell those fans that we're going to play good baseball. We're going to play hard. We're going to have exciting young players..." -Bud Black

by The Kipper on Oct 22, 2009 4:59 PM PDT up reply actions

F**k that.

by Drama on Oct 25, 2009 7:26 PM PDT up reply actions

I really appreciate you posting this.

I often buy the book, but I may not now, because I usually get it just for the Padres info.

Thanks, GLB.

by brewer090 on Oct 22, 2009 5:11 PM PDT reply actions

We need another

glb predictions for 2010… maybe ’tec should do it this year?

"If the Padres lose (again) and no -one is watching, does it count in the standings?" ...anonymous confucious guy

by ABY on Oct 22, 2009 5:19 PM PDT reply actions

Bill James predictions

While fun, are far from the most sophisticated in the business. In fact, I rarely seem them referenced in any sort of analytical work that requires a season project. I think that the fact that they are out this early tells you than anyway. Any projection system worth its salt is going to take time to get all the numbers crunch and will also wait until players are signed or traded in the offseason. The BJH is more of a season-in-review than a season-in-preview anyway, so I don’t think he’s terribly interested in making sure his predictions are the most accurate or precise.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Oct 23, 2009 4:06 PM PDT reply actions