2009 Padres Season Outlook
So with the rumors going around about the payroll, and people talking about how the padres should sign this high price free agents and that free agent. I decided to take a look at the FA list and see where we can improve, and if it would be worth the money. I got the list from http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2002/02/2008-09-free-agents.html and then checked there current salaries against the same site.
First Basemen
Rich Aurilia SF
Ben Broussard TEX
Carlos Delgado * NYM
Nomar Garciaparra LAD
Jason Giambi * NYY
Wes Helms PHI
Kevin Millar BAL
Richie Sexson NYY
Mark Teixeira LAA
Frank Thomas OAK
Jim Thome CWS
Daryle Ward CHC
-So this list isn't really that interesting. In my opinon not even Teixeria is as good as Agon, and with his asking price aroung $20-25M its not even a consideration. Daryle Ward and Nomar are good backup options since they can play multiple positions, but really I wouldn't spend more than $3M on either. Ward will probably be looking at a deal near $2M a year.
I would recommend the padres think about ripping up Agon contract and sign him to a longer deal.
Second Basemen
Jamey Carroll * CLE
Ray Durham MIL
Mark Ellis OAK
Marcus Giles COL
Mark Grudzielanek KC
Orlando Hudson ARZ
Jeff Kent LAD
Felipe Lopez WAS
D’Angelo Jimenez STL
Pablo Ozuna LAD
Nick Punto MIN
Jose Valentin NYM
Jose Vidro * SEA
-2b is an interesting group. Orland Hudson is getting older and Mark Ellis are both quality FA, but have risks with them. Hudson is getting up there in age, but has been signing a series of 1 year deals. I would expect him to receive around the same this year (maybe looking for 2years), but at that price I am not sure he is that much better than EGon. (actually I think he is a significatn upgrade). He would also cost the Padres 2 draft picks to sign him. Mark Ellis is making $5M this year.
I think Egon is the best option given cost and how signing Hudson would cost the padres the draft picks.
Shortstops
Orlando Cabrera CWS
Alex Cintron CWS
Alex Cora BOS
Craig Counsell * MIL
Adam Everett MIN
Rafael Furcal LAD
Cesar Izturis STL
Ramon Martinez LAD
Edgar Renteria * DET
Juan Uribe CWS
So Edgar Renteria has a club option and I don't think he will be available. Juan Uribe has been on a steady decline, and really has only been adequate 1 season offensively he does rank well behind KG and is 2 years older than KG. The funny thing about Furcal, is everyone thinks he is way better than KG, but over their last 4 full season, their advance stats are almost identical. The diffence is Furcal has had a steady decline and will be 32 next year. KG had an awful year this year, but his BA for ball in play is super low, and Furcal has been super high. The Dodger really can't lose Furcal, so I am sure Colleti will increase his salary next year probably to $15M+.
As bad as this sound, the Padres really have no choice, the will need to keep KG and hope he rebounds.
The rest of the SS lists are a bunch of backups and defensive replacements
Third Basemen
Hank Blalock * TEX
Joe Crede CWS
Morgan Ensberg NYY
Chipper Jones * ATL
Corey Koskie MIL
Greg Norton TB
We really have a log jam at 3b, and given the costs of these guys, no reason to even look at his. Once you factor out the the two guys with club options, then its pretty thin. Koskie is good...when playing at Brewers park.
I think the padres should trade Kouz and stick with Headley at 3b. Kouz should return some good prospects since he has a few more years of cost contol.
Catchers
Rod Barajas TOR
Henry Blanco * CHC
Johnny Estrada WAS
Toby Hall * CWS
Adam Melhuse TEX
Mike Redmond * MIN
Ivan Rodriguez NYY
David Ross * CIN
Javier Valentin CIN
Jason Varitek BOS
Vance Wilson DET
Gregg Zaun * TOR
PASS....
Outfielders
Bobby Abreu NYY
Moises Alou NYM
Garret Anderson * LAA
Rocco Baldelli TB
Willie Bloomquist SEA
Emil Brown OAK
Pat Burrell PHI
Endy Chavez NYM
Carl Crawford * TB
Adam Dunn CIN
Jim Edmonds CHC
Cliff Floyd TB
Brian Giles * SD
Ken Griffey Jr. * CWS
Vladimir Guerrero * LAA
Raul Ibanez SEA
Jacque Jones DET
Mark Kotsay ATL
Rob Mackowiak WAS
Kevin Mench TOR
Jason Michaels * CLE
Craig Monroe MIN
Jay Payton BAL
Scott Podsednik COL
Manny Ramirez * LAD
Juan Rivera LAA
Rondell White MIN
Long list
Manny will just be too expensive. Garret Anderson is living off a good year in 2002, and LAA will pick up the opton anyways. Bobby Abreu would be a good signing, but how much will it take $30M/3 years?? Maybe a little more?
Pat Burrel would be the best signing, it may take $50M over 4 years, maybe a few more millon, but he fits perfectly in LF and his pull hitting wouldn't take away from his power numbers.
I like Dunn, and his number are good if you can hand the K's, but we really need another RHB. If we can't sign Burrel, then he is probably the next best option.
Looking at the rest of the list, really picking up the option on Giles is a non Brainer, and Jody Gerut would be the best true CF on the market.
Starting Pitchers
Kris Benson PHI
A.J. Burnett TOR (may opt out)
Paul Byrd CLE
Ryan Dempster CHC
Jon Garland LAA
Tom Glavine ATL
Mike Hampton * ATL
Rich Harden * CHC
Orlando Hernandez NYM
Jason Jennings TEX
Randy Johnson ARZ
John Lackey * LAA
Esteban Loaiza CHW
Braden Looper STL
Derek Lowe LAD
Pedro Martinez NYM
Mike Mussina NYY
Jamie Moyer PHI
Mark Mulder * STL
Carl Pavano NYY
Brad Penny * LAD
Odalis Perez WAS
Oliver Perez NYM
Andy Pettitte NYY
Mark Prior SD
Horatio Ramirez KC
C.C. Sabathia MIL
Ben Sheets MIL
John Smoltz * ATL
Julian Tavarez ATL
Steve Trachsel BAL
Brett Tomko SD
Claudio Vargas MIL
Randy Wolf HOU
So excluding all the club options guy, what High Price free agents are worth it?
AJ Burnett is interesting, but I think him and his agent are looking for Johan money. Given he is entering the age where power pitcher start to break down, and he will be asking for a 6 year deal, and his injury status, Not sure he would be worth a big signing from a club that can't carry dead money. The majority of longterm big money contracts do not go well (switching teams). Sure the yankess have had a few (Mussina), but they have had a number of busts (Pavano be the most recent one)
Ben Sheets-see AJ burnett
Derek Lowe would be a terrific signing and he has a good relationship with Paul Depodsata. If we can get him to take #2-3 money instead of #1 money then he would be definetly worth it.
C.C. Sabathia is going to be playing in NY. But him with Peavy as the 1-2 combo is something we can dream about.
Derek Lowe is probably the most realistic option. Colleti is not a fan of any PD guys, the rest are a bunch of back end of the rotation flyer guys.
Relief Pitcher;
The list is pretty huge, and uninteresting. Unless the padres think they can win the division, I think the best thing for them is lock up Bell for 3 years, put him as the closer, and if he has a good year then trade him for a kings ransom.
So what is everyone elses thoughts?
This FanPost was written by a member of the Gaslamp Ball community and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Gaslamp Ball managers or SB Nation.
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19 comments
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I've been thinking about the offseason a lot the last couple of weeks.
Here’s my ideal plan with an eye on competing next year:
- Sign Pat Burrell. He could be out of the Padres’ price range but if the FO wants to win over the fans then they should pursue Burrell. And if you’re worried about him playing in a hitter-friendly park, note that his home/away splits are nearly identical (99 OPS+ at home, 101 OPS+ on road).
- Trade Kouzmanoff for pitching or maybe a second basemen. I don’t know what the market would be for him but those are the two spots I’d look for.
- Sign Oliver Perez. He’s shown improvement with the Mets and Petco would certainly help him out.
- If Greg Maddux retires, resign Randy Wolf. We know Wolf wants to play here, so he’ll likely take a discount to do so. I suppose if Maddux doesn’t retire we could still sign him, but I’d like to give one of our young pitchers a shot at the 5th spot, however risky that might be.
- Let Hundley/Bard stick at Catcher. I love Hundley’s arm and potential offensive output. Plus the FA market for catchers sucks.
"If I wasn't Bob Dylan, I'd probably think that Bob Dylan has a lot of answers myself." - Bob Dylan
by JollyWaffle on
Aug 13, 2008 1:13 PM PDT
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Also, if Burrell doesn't work out...
I’d go after Milton Bradley. He would seem to be in line for a huge pay increase after his hot start but his power numbers have declined considerably in the second half so he could be had cheaply. Plus I miss that guy so much :(
"If I wasn't Bob Dylan, I'd probably think that Bob Dylan has a lot of answers myself." - Bob Dylan
by JollyWaffle on
Aug 13, 2008 1:19 PM PDT
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that would make me a happy dave
www.wellbelowthemendozaline.blogspot.com
by justdave on
Aug 13, 2008 1:57 PM PDT
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We don't have a DH spot
So Bradley is a no-go.
I don't have to always be right. I just have to always think I'm right.
by Wonko on
Aug 15, 2008 12:45 AM PDT
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I dunno man I still think he can play LF.
If he wants to DH then that’s one thing but I could still see him playing LF next season.
"If I wasn't Bob Dylan, I'd probably think that Bob Dylan has a lot of answers myself." - Bob Dylan
by JollyWaffle on
Aug 15, 2008 3:07 PM PDT
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Not sure about
your home/road splits for Burrell. His overall OPS+ for the year is 141, so it doesn’t seem like your numbers jibe…
Here are my suggestions:
- Trade Kouz for a mid-roation starter. We can’t keep depending on Greg Maddux and Randy Wolfs. I’m not sure who you target, but I’m highly in favor of a Dave Bush for Kevin Kouzmanoff trade. The Brewers need a 3B and they seem to waver on how they feel about Bush. Bush has got pretty good stuff and would probably excel here. I also believe he’s under club control for some time. This would obviously also result in moving Chase to 3B.
- Let one of Huffman/Veneable/Hairston battle for the starting LF job. This all assumes that we pick up Giles’ option for next year. If we don’t, move Veneable to RF and let Hairston and Huffman battle for the spot.
- Re-sign Gerut to a 3 year deal in the 3/12 range. He seems to want to stay here, and he really has been a tremendous player for us this year. He’s been fine in CF.
- Find an adequate backup IF. It looks like Luis Rodriguez could be this member.
- Find a serviceable 2B. I have no idea who we could tab for this. I had really hoped that Antonelli would be ready in ‘09, but that’s clearly not looking good.
- Approach Adrian about a new contract. If he rebuffs, start shopping him for a front-line starter. We’ve got Blanks who will be ready soon enough.
- Bard and Hundley catch, with Bard as the backup. He’s something of a known quantity at this point, so we might as well give Hundley a shot.
- Sign Ollie Perez and one of Greg Maddux or Randy Wolf for the FIFTH spot. If we manage to swing a trade of Kouz for a guy like Bush, we’d have a rotation of Peavy/Young/Perez/Bush/Wolf (or Maddux) with Banks and Baek as swingmen to take on the fifth spot when CY or Ollie get hurt.
by Phantom on
Aug 13, 2008 3:03 PM PDT
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I should clarify
that it’s fine to have Maddux or Wolf as a fifth starter. But they’re not number 3 or 4 guys.
by Phantom on
Aug 13, 2008 3:04 PM PDT
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Burrell's splits
Those are his career splits. I suppose I should’ve looked at his more recent numbers. He’s actually hitting better on the road this season than at home.
"If I wasn't Bob Dylan, I'd probably think that Bob Dylan has a lot of answers myself." - Bob Dylan
by JollyWaffle on
Aug 13, 2008 3:38 PM PDT
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Still
Would like to see:
- Mark Ellis at 2nd for maybe 1 to 2 years
- Emil Brown in LF for 1 year, Gerut for 2 with an option, and Giles in right
- Headley at 3rd, Greene at short, and Agon at 1st
by sacpadre on
Aug 13, 2008 4:07 PM PDT
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Ouch
Emil Brown in left would be rather painful. He’s a downgrade from Kouzmanoff. Better to just go with a McAnulty or Venable with Hairston platoon, that would be far more productive.
I don't have to always be right. I just have to always think I'm right.
by Wonko on
Aug 15, 2008 12:48 AM PDT
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Burrell
Isn’t he a Boras client? He’s gonna command at least a 4 year deal, which the Padres will most assuredly balk at.
Ollie will probably price out. He seems like a guy the Phillies, Mariners, and possibly the Braves or Brewers might spend some money on.
A Cliff Floyd/Scott Hairston platoon for LF might be interesting. Also, Ibanez on an incentive laden deal would be up the Padres alley. Of course, they would have to trade Kouzmanoff and I would want something more valuable than quintessential 5th starter David Bush. The problem I’ve always had with trading Kouz is that while he is a good player, he is only a slight upgrade at best for teams in need of a 3B.
I don't have to always be right. I just have to always think I'm right.
by Wonko on
Aug 15, 2008 12:56 AM PDT
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Bush is way better
than a fifth starter and I think he would excel once he gets out of Milwaukee. Guy has pretty good strikeout numbers and I imagine he’d do well under Balsley.
I think Ollie really liked San Diego. He’s a Boras client, but he also probably wants to put up some good numbers. He could do that here.
by Phantom on
Aug 15, 2008 8:14 AM PDT
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I don't really see that much difference between Bush and Wolf
Other than the injury history and age. And I think you posted that Wolf would be a fifth starter. Bush is probably cheaper than Wolf (although he’s probably arb-eligible), but the cost of giving up Kouz negates that. Maybe you see something different, but Bush to me seems like an ideal swing-man that could get some spot starts and pitch long relief (although that role seems to have went the way of the dinosaur), but I wouldn’t want to give up a starting 3B to get that.
I don't have to always be right. I just have to always think I'm right.
by Wonko on
Aug 15, 2008 11:03 AM PDT
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great post dude
www.wellbelowthemendozaline.blogspot.com
by justdave on
Aug 13, 2008 1:57 PM PDT
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rec'd
well done. Really appreciate the work you out into the post. As long as we aren’t shit next year I will be so happy.
Bring back Balboa Stadium.
by calipatrick on
Aug 13, 2008 3:23 PM PDT
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Very depressing
looks like a very similar lineup – swap a few ptichers, one outfileder and 2b. Just hope they all don’t have a down year like this one.
"Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana"
Groucho Marx
by planetjeffy on
Aug 14, 2008 8:36 PM PDT
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take last year's bullpen
put it in this club and we would be a whole lot closer to Arizona and LA, imo.
We have a good core but we would need more consistency out of the K-Bot, CY and 2B (Edgar was playing all-star caliber 2B awesome for a month).
"He had decided to live forever or die in the attempt"
by penguinpatrol on
Aug 15, 2008 10:30 AM PDT
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Another thought
At the risk of going all Philly Billy, it’d be nice to bring in Loretta and keep EGon and Greene and try a 3 way platoon (or maybe 4-way if EGon spells Giles every once in a while). Loretta also serves as in-game backup at 1B and 3B, so you could get a left handed bench bat that doesn’t have defensive value, like Darryl Ward (or if all else fails, PMac). I suppose you could also go Aaron Miles (switch hitter) instead of Loretta and you could bring in Mike Sweeney, Wes Helms or Dallas McPherson to be a bench bat.
I don't have to always be right. I just have to always think I'm right.
by Wonko on
Aug 15, 2008 11:19 AM PDT
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