FanPost

2009 Padres Season Outlook

So with the rumors going around about the payroll, and people talking about how the padres should sign this high price free agents and that free agent.  I decided to take a look at the FA list and see where we can improve, and if it would be worth the money. I got the list from http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2002/02/2008-09-free-agents.html and then checked there current salaries against the same site.

First Basemen
Rich Aurilia SF
Ben Broussard TEX
Carlos Delgado * NYM
Nomar Garciaparra LAD
Jason Giambi * NYY
Wes Helms PHI
Kevin Millar BAL
Richie Sexson NYY
Mark Teixeira LAA
Frank Thomas OAK
Jim Thome CWS
Daryle Ward CHC

-So this list isn't really that interesting. In my opinon not even Teixeria is as good as Agon, and with his asking price aroung $20-25M its not even a consideration.  Daryle Ward and Nomar are good backup options since they can play multiple positions, but really I wouldn't spend more than $3M on either.  Ward will probably be looking at a deal near $2M a year.

I would recommend the padres think about ripping up Agon contract and sign him to a longer deal.

 

Second Basemen
Jamey Carroll * CLE
Ray Durham MIL
Mark Ellis OAK
Marcus Giles COL
Mark Grudzielanek KC
Orlando Hudson ARZ
Jeff Kent LAD
Felipe Lopez WAS
D’Angelo Jimenez STL
Pablo Ozuna LAD
Nick Punto MIN
Jose Valentin NYM
Jose Vidro * SEA

-2b is an interesting group. Orland Hudson is getting older and Mark Ellis are both quality FA, but have risks with them.  Hudson is getting up there in age, but has been signing a series of 1 year deals.  I would expect him to receive around the same this year (maybe looking for 2years), but at that price I am not sure he is that much better than EGon.  (actually I think he is a significatn upgrade).  He would also cost the Padres 2 draft picks to sign him. Mark Ellis is making $5M this year.

I think Egon is the best option given cost and how signing Hudson would cost the padres the draft picks.

 

Shortstops
Orlando Cabrera CWS
Alex Cintron CWS
Alex Cora BOS
Craig Counsell * MIL
Adam Everett MIN
Rafael Furcal LAD
Cesar Izturis STL
Ramon Martinez LAD
Edgar Renteria * DET
Juan Uribe CWS

 

So Edgar Renteria has a club option and I don't think he will be available.  Juan Uribe has been on a steady decline, and really has only been adequate 1 season offensively he does rank well behind KG and is 2 years older than KG.  The funny thing about Furcal, is everyone thinks he is way better than KG, but over their last 4 full season, their advance stats are almost identical.  The diffence is Furcal has had a steady decline and will be 32 next year.  KG had an awful year this year, but his BA for ball in play is super low, and Furcal has been super high.  The Dodger really can't lose Furcal, so I am sure Colleti will increase his salary next year probably to $15M+.

As bad as this sound, the Padres really have no choice, the will need to keep KG and hope he rebounds.

The rest of the SS lists are a bunch of backups and defensive replacements

 

Third Basemen
Hank Blalock * TEX
Joe Crede CWS
Morgan Ensberg NYY
Chipper Jones * ATL
Corey Koskie MIL
Greg Norton TB

We really have a log jam at 3b, and given the costs of these guys, no reason to even look at his.  Once you factor out the the two guys with club options, then its pretty thin.  Koskie is good...when playing at Brewers park.

I think the padres should trade Kouz and stick with Headley at 3b. Kouz should return some good prospects since he has a few more years of cost contol.

Catchers
Rod Barajas TOR
Henry Blanco * CHC
Johnny Estrada WAS
Toby Hall * CWS
Adam Melhuse TEX
Mike Redmond * MIN
Ivan Rodriguez NYY
David Ross * CIN
Javier Valentin CIN
Jason Varitek BOS
Vance Wilson DET
Gregg Zaun * TOR

  PASS....

 Outfielders
Bobby Abreu NYY
Moises Alou NYM
Garret Anderson * LAA
Rocco Baldelli TB
Willie Bloomquist SEA
Emil Brown OAK
Pat Burrell PHI
Endy Chavez NYM
Carl Crawford * TB
Adam Dunn CIN
Jim Edmonds CHC
Cliff Floyd TB
Brian Giles * SD
Ken Griffey Jr. * CWS
Vladimir Guerrero * LAA
Raul Ibanez SEA
Jacque Jones DET
Mark Kotsay ATL
Rob Mackowiak WAS
Kevin Mench TOR
Jason Michaels * CLE
Craig Monroe MIN
Jay Payton BAL
Scott Podsednik COL
Manny Ramirez * LAD
Juan Rivera LAA
Rondell White MIN

Long list

Manny will just be too expensive.  Garret Anderson is living off a good year in 2002, and LAA will pick up the opton anyways.  Bobby Abreu would be a good signing, but how much will it take  $30M/3 years?? Maybe a little more?

Pat Burrel would be the best signing, it may take $50M over 4 years, maybe a few more millon, but he fits perfectly in LF and his pull hitting wouldn't take away from his power numbers.

I like Dunn, and his number are good if you can hand the K's, but we really need another RHB.  If we can't sign Burrel, then he is probably the next best option.

Looking at the rest of the list, really picking up the option on Giles is a non Brainer, and Jody Gerut would be the best true CF on the market.

Starting Pitchers
Kris Benson PHI
A.J. Burnett TOR (may opt out)
Paul Byrd CLE
Ryan Dempster CHC
Jon Garland LAA
Tom Glavine ATL
Mike Hampton * ATL
Rich Harden * CHC
Orlando Hernandez NYM
Jason Jennings TEX
Randy Johnson ARZ
John Lackey * LAA
Esteban Loaiza CHW
Braden Looper STL
Derek Lowe LAD
Pedro Martinez NYM
Mike Mussina NYY
Jamie Moyer PHI
Mark Mulder * STL
Carl Pavano NYY
Brad Penny * LAD
Odalis Perez WAS
Oliver Perez NYM
Andy Pettitte NYY
Mark Prior SD
Horatio Ramirez KC
C.C. Sabathia MIL
Ben Sheets MIL
John Smoltz * ATL
Julian Tavarez ATL
Steve Trachsel BAL
Brett Tomko SD
Claudio Vargas MIL
Randy Wolf HOU

So excluding all the club options guy, what High Price free agents are worth it?

AJ Burnett is interesting, but I think him and his agent are looking for Johan money.  Given he is entering the age where power pitcher start to break down, and he will be asking for a 6 year deal, and his injury status, Not sure he would be worth a big signing from a club that can't carry dead money.  The majority of longterm big money contracts do not go well (switching teams).  Sure the yankess have had a few (Mussina), but they have had a number of busts (Pavano be the most recent one)

Ben Sheets-see AJ burnett

Derek Lowe would be a terrific signing and he has a good relationship with Paul Depodsata.  If we can get him to take #2-3 money instead of #1 money then he would be definetly worth it.

C.C. Sabathia is going to be playing in NY.  But him with Peavy as the 1-2 combo is something we can dream about.

Derek Lowe is probably the most realistic option.  Colleti is not a fan of any PD guys, the rest are a bunch of back end of the rotation flyer guys.

Relief Pitcher;

The list is pretty huge, and uninteresting.  Unless the padres think they can win the division, I think the best thing for them is lock up Bell for 3 years, put him as the closer, and if he has a good year then trade him for a kings ransom.

So what is everyone elses thoughts?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This FanPost was written by a member of the Gaslamp Ball community and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Gaslamp Ball managers or SB Nation.

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