Smells Like Padres in Here - Wednesday Edition
by Drama on Jul 30, 2008 7:22 AM PDT
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CY: 5.0 IP, 2 H, O R, 2 BB, 8 K
In an attempt to make feel CY feel just like one of the fellas again...the Padres waste a great effort by the starter, don't hit a damned thing and play sloppy defense. Welcome back, CY! (Side note: The U-T header under the headline "Young sound, but Davis stars as two survivors square off". Ummm...really?)
(Check out the guy in the San Diego State sweatshirt...how brilliant is that? Carlos Mencia in the white long-sleeve t-shirt right behind him.)
Padres have been shut out seven times this season. I would have guessed more than that.
Shawn Estes had a good bullpen outing. Apparently there are no stairs leading to our bullpen at Petco.
If you're going crazy hitting MLBTR today...don't. Maddux to the Dodgers is the only possibility of any movement whatsoever and that looks doubtful, at best. One of the three worst records in all of baseball and we're not going to do a damn thing at the trade deadline....awesome.
The Portland to San Diego to Portland routine is pretty normal this season. I wonder if the players get to keep their frequent flier miles?
The Nationals have now lost seven in a row...I hate to sound like Billy Packer here, but the Race for the Strasburg "is over".
Danny Haren vs. Cha Seung Baek. First pitch is at 7:05pm. If you want diarrhea you better get to Petco tonight...tonight is the last night for $1 dogs.
This FanPost was written by a member of the Gaslamp Ball community and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Gaslamp Ball managers or SB Nation.
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I would have guessed more shutouts, too.
But at least CY looked great. (and he pitched well, too—waahhhh wahhhhhhhhh)
I wish we had pieces to trade, but we really don’t. I would have loved if Barrett were healthy and, in defiance of God’s Will, completely raking so we could ship him to the Yankees. Ditto with Iguchi and another team. Or if Maddux had more wins and would approve a trade somewhere further than 100 miles away. And the Kouz-for-young-OF deal isn’t happening.
So there we have it—a crappy year with many exclamation points. Hopefully the division sucks this bad in 09 we have a shot at it.
Actually a ton of postives
in last night’s game. CY looked fairly sharp and I loved how we manufactured a threat in the 8th inning. Despite our inability to hit, we very nearly tied the game up in the 8th, which I thought was inspiring.
Just for The Kipper...
The Portland Beavers are having a “Leave it to Beaver” night Saturday night.
The Portland Beavers, the Padres’ top farm club, will be giving away Leave It to Beaver bobbleheads, and the first pitch will be thrown out by Jerry Mathers, who played Theodore "Beaver" Cleaver on the TV show.
Living in Portland
I’m living in Portland right now for school. I might go to the game just to get the Bobblehead :)
If anyone wants Jerry Mathers autograph...
Speak now or forever hold your peace
"We will never be the darlings of the chabliss and brie crowd who disdain us."
Bottom of the 8th
I’d say in last night’s game, the bottom of the 8th inning pretty much summed up the season. Our lineup of platoon players strung something together and put ourselves in a situation to get back into the game. Gerut comes up and drives a pitch to the deepest part of the park with Romero making an amazing catch. You can’t ask much more of Gerut, he had a quality at bat. It is just the way the season has been for us.
I order to better the team; the moves need to start in the front office. I am a huge Sandy Alderson fan; even more after Money Ball came out. Kevin Towers is the one who has to go. Change is a good thing. His moves in the mid 90’s were brilliant, but it seems he has gotten too comfortable with his job. He might be a great guy outside of the office, but this is a business environment.
Lastly on my rant, we need to figure something out at the key positions, the middle of the field, Catcher, Second Base, Shortstop, and Center Field. We have nothing up the middle of the field. Khalil Greene is a black hole in the lineup. He has done nothing since his rookie year. Sure he hit 27 homeruns last year, but his on-base percentage did not even crack 300!
Your first paragraph
makes it sound as if the teams failures this season are just a case of bad luck
Not Bad Luck
Our lineup of platoon players
I think that right there says it is more than a case of bad luck.
Platoon players?
You had Chase, Khalil, Hundley, Bard, and Gerut in the 8th.
Chase, Khalil, and Bard are starters. They’d be starters on a bunch of teams. Hundley and Gerut would probably have roles on other teams.
I don’t think they’re platoon guys at all. They’re just the bottom half of our order.
Chase and Hundley
I would say Chase and Gerut are the only players I would say you could build a franchise around or at least be content with having them as a starter. I was on the Khalil Greene bandwagon for the first few years. I am more than tired of his lack of production. Omar Vizquel and Ozzie Smith are the only shortstops who are good enough in the field to make up for a sub 300 on-base percentage. Yeah he hit 27 homeruns, but his production has been on a steady decline since his rookie season.
Bard did produce in the past, with his production this season, I find it hard to consider him a starter on any other team. Yes, some team like the Padres would take a gamble on him and try to make him start.
If you look at the better teams in baseball, they get production out of both halves of their lineup. There is no reason why the Padres should not be able to do the same thing.
You're kidding, right
Adam Everett has made a fine career by playing excellent defense and hitting worse than Khalil. Tulowitzki is having an atrocious sophmore season and nobody is giving up on him.
Khalil has five consecutive 10 HR years. There aren’t a whole lot of shortstops who can make that claim AND provide the great defense that he does.
He’s clearly struggling this year, but he’s still a cornerstone of this franchise. His career OPS+ is 100, which is league average offense. Most teams would kill to have a shortstop who plays great defense and can put up league average offense.
For comparison purposes, here are SS that have put up five or more consecutive years of 10 or more HRs. You can decide about their defense.
- Miguel Tejada
- Derek Jeter
- Edgar Renteria
That’s not exactly an extensive list. He’s far from the hack that you imagine he is.
You can hide alot of KGs offensive flaws
by only focusing on his 10+ HRs a year, and his average OPS+
What about his sub .300 OBP ?
I'm not trying to hide
his offensive flaws. I’m just trying to say that he’s not as terrible as people purport him to be. Yeah, his OBP is miserable. But I would aruge that his defnese and his power more than balance out that aspect of his game.
Over their careers, Khalil Greene and Rafael Furcal have almost identical career OPS+. Khalil is at 95, and Furcal is at 96. Yet who gets more hype nationally and is more widely considered to be the better player. Furcal. And why? Because he steals a couple more bags and plays for better known teams? I personally think that Khalil plays better defense than Furcal (and admittedly flawed statistics like fielding percentage support this observation), which makes him as good, if not better, than Furcal.
Yes, his season has sucked donkey balls. There is no debating that. But too much of baseball is a “what have you done for me lately” proposition. People argue that his skills have declined since his rookie year, while only pointing to his BA and his OBP. Yet, his defense has improved since 2004 and he experienced a surge in power last year represented by both his HRs and XBHs.
Look, I know any argument from me is likely going to be dismissed outright simply because I’m a huge fan of his. And i fully admit he’s an imperfect player who’s have an atrocious year. But he’s not the hack a lot of people try to make him out ot be. Look at the numbers objectively, and I think you can seee this.
The old media bias excuse ?
Saying Furcal “steals a couple more bags” is like saying Chipper Jones hits for a little better average. Furcal has over 250 SBs in his career and averages about 35 a season.
How many SBs does Khalil have?
I am not dismissing your argument because you are a Greene fan. I am dismissing it for its deceptive comments about SBs. If you cant be honest about SBs, the rest of your argument seems likely to be just as misleading
Well
most analysts completely dismiss SBs as a part of the game, so I guess that’s why I don’t think it’s a big deal.
And why would my argument be “just as misleading”. Go to the numbers. Tell me why Furcal is routinely touted as a better player than Khalil. Because of the stolen bases?
I don’t have the book with me, since I’m at work, but Baseball Prospectus’ Baseball Between the Numbers has a chapter that examines the net effects of stolen bases over the course of a year. They find, that even in the most extreme circumstances (say Pete Incavilgia vs. Rickey Henderson, as the chapter uses for its principal analysis), the difference you get from stolen bases is worth 1/2 to a full win more. That’s it. The threshold for sotlen bases to be successful is so high that they often don’t signifcantly imapct a team’s win expectancy if successful, but can obliterate it if the attempt fails.
And media bias has a HELL of a lot to do with the way players are valuated on the open market. Ask 100 baseball fans who the most valuable shortstop in baseball is. They might say Jeter or Rollins. Most people who examine the numbers would easily see Ramirez.
In fact, Jeter is a great example of media bias. He’s historically an incredibly overrated player, but because he’s Captain Clutch of the Yankees, he’s elevated to God-like status.
I was probably more dismissive of the stolen base without putting out my reasoning for it. But I certainly think my logic stands here.
Stolen Bases and Clutch Stats
If anyone has read the book Money Ball and bought into it, you can effectively throw out the stats Stolen Base and RBIs. I agree with Phantom on the topic of Stolen Bases. RBI’s are a situational stat. It is a stat that relies upon the other players of your team to get on base.
As far as Khalil Greene goes… he is 24th in the National League in OPS according to MLB.com Comparison I will try to figure out how to do historical stats for the comparison later. Looking at it, the only everyday Shortstop who is worse than Khalil is Omar Vizquel. I think it is safe to say Omar’s defense is better than Khalil’s.
I find it interesting after signing a big extension; Khalil’s production would be this bad.
He's having a bad year
It happens. It just happens to be a really bad year right after his new contract, which sucks for us.
My only qualm with a straight OPS comparison is that it’s not park-adjusted. I’m not trying to say that a normalized comparison would having him a lot higher, but that’s why I usually try to stick to stats like OPS+ which take into account these types of effects.
If you dont value Stolen Bases
That is fine.
But to claim that a “couple of SBs” and the LA market are all that separate Furcal and Greene is very misleading. Since when is 250 SBs a couple more than 38 ?
Since when is a lead off hitter on par with a number 7 hitter ?
Since their career
park-and league-adjusted stats are relatively equal.
And since their career defense is relatively equal.
Put another way, do you think the numbers make Furcal the favorite, hands down? Or do you think it’s the fact that Furcal leads off and steals more bases?
I’m not trying to demean you here, but you’re completely ignoring a lot of the points I’m making. I’m willing to concede that Furcal steals way more bases, but I also don’t think it matters, due to the reasons I articulated above.
If you want to believe that Furcal is a significantly better player than Khalil is, that’s fine. But don’t pretend that Khalil is some hack player who doesn’t deserve to be on a major league roster. The empirical difference between Greene and Furcal isn’t as far as you seem to think.
And sorry to everyone for the amount of posts, but I’m really bored at work today.
It took you 5 lengthy posts
to finally acknowledge that Furcals 250 SBs are significantly more than Greenes 35 SB. I never said Greene is some hack player. Please dont put words in my mouth.
I simply disagree strongly with your earlier assessment that Furcal is considered better only because of a couple of SBs, and because he plays in Los Angeles. You can change the argument all you want. You can put words in my mouth. The fact remains, 250 SBs to 35 SBs is not “a couple”.
Greenes sub .300 OBP is a major liability. If you think its the medias fault, then we will continue to disagree.
And it's taken you many more
to completely ignore that their normalized numbers are almost identical.
Nobody here is saying that his OBP doesn’t matter. My argument, which the statstics support, is that there must be other aspects of Khalil’s game that make up for this deficiency.
I’m sorry I so offended your sensibilities by writing off stolen bases. I ignored them because I don’t consider them to be important, again, as I articulated above.
You keep trying to change the argument
The issue isnt whether SBs are important or not.
The issue I have was your attempt to distort the numbers.
A difference of over 200 stolen bases is not “a couple”
The other comments you make are just used as a diversion.
It took you 5 posts to finally address the “couple of SBs” comment.
If you cant even be honest about SB numbers, then I am much less likely to believe any future things you say.
Credibility is not one of your strong points.
To also claim that Greene is a victim of being in a small market seems like a grasp at straws.
Is this you?
Are you the one who thought Greene deserved to be an All Star, but was the victim of east coast bias?
Can't help but rec
Baseball was, is and always will be to me the best game in the world. -Babe Ruth
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Jul 30, 2008 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions
"This is about...?"
is the new “That’s what she said”.
www.PadsAndEnds.blogspot.com
"jbox does not drink coffee, as it makes him clean house big time." ~Kev
by TheThirdGonzalez on Jul 30, 2008 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions
You must be new around here
don’t start with Phantom about Khalil.
Baseball was, is and always will be to me the best game in the world. -Babe Ruth
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Jul 30, 2008 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't mind
well-reasoned arguments, but I get irritated when people slag him without doing their HW. The guy is having a horrible year. You’re not going to see me argue this point. But he’s been a valuable player up to this point, and the number suggest that he is about equally valuable to Rafael Furcal. Nobody shits on Furcal. Lots of people shit on Khalil.
To me, there’s some disconnect between perception and reality here. I’m curious to know why that is.
It's obvious isn't it?
Khalil’s layed back personality (or whatever it is) gives the perception that he doesn’t care and isn’t trying his best.
Baseball was, is and always will be to me the best game in the world. -Babe Ruth
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Jul 30, 2008 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions
If you think Furcal has "a couple" of more Stolen Bases than Greene
Then perhaps you are the one who didnt do your homework.
I get the impression that your idea of “well reasoned arguments”, are ones where everybody blindly believes you.
i like what you had to say and you have a cool email address.
"When the going gets tough... TheGrandHatching pops in later." -- WG
by TheGrandHatching on Jul 30, 2008 1:58 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Dude
Why are you being such an ass? So I ignored stolen bases. Every one of my other points stands. I have admitted that I skipped the stolen bases, and yet you still ignore all of my other points.
Can you point to a substantive, meaningful difference between Rafael Furcal and Khalil Greene over their careers? And by meaningful, yes, that excluded stolen bases because they have a negligible effect on the game.
I’ve admitted I ignored stolen bases. How about addressing some of my other points? And my credibility shouldn’t be hurt here, simply because I ignored a statistic you think is important. There are plenty of other contentions I’ve made that you can refute if you’d like. Continuing to harp on the same thing is kind of stupid. It was dumb of me to say what I did about Furcal “stealing a few extra bags”. I didn’t look at this career SBs compared to Khalil. I did, however, compare their overall offensive output and defense. There. I still said plenty of other things that I think have merit.
And “obscene” is also a poor choice to describe any perceived homerism on my part.
I am not on here
to campaign for Furcal. But when I see misleading and dishonest comments about how good Khalil Greene is, I am going to speak up. I hate low OBP, high strikeout, low batting average players. If thats your cup of tea, so be it. You got caught in a lie, and it took you 5 posts to come clean.You didnt have the credibility or the integrity to acknowledge your fabrication, until I pressed the issue. And dont call someone who disagrees with you an “ass”. I refrained from tossing insults at you. If you pulled that nonsense when you post over at Ducksnorts, they would tell you to hit the road. Learn some manners!
This is pointless
I regularly post at Ducksnorts without incident. I’ll save everyone else from dragging out this pissing contest any more. We disagree. Period.
your argument was sounder than most others
"When the going gets tough... TheGrandHatching pops in later." -- WG
by TheGrandHatching on Jul 30, 2008 2:45 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Fabrications usually are POINTLESS
I am glad you are learning
Baseball was, is and always will be to me the best game in the world. -Babe Ruth
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Jul 30, 2008 11:43 PM PDT up reply actions
If you pulled that nonsense when you post over at Ducksnorts, they would tell you to hit the road.
That’s because Ducksnorts are a bunch of asses.
by 'Eaters on Jul 30, 2008 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
I'm sorry but
Argument lost credibility when you said you could build a franchise around Jody Gerut.
I don't have to always be right. I just have to always think I'm right.
How do we feel
about national sports writers insinuating our players have used steroids?
I know that we’ve always cracked about Giles on ‘roids, but it seems, I dunno, unprofessional for a sports writer to do it. And especially in this piece, when it is wholly irrelevant.
I don't think he said anything wrong
it’s true they did mysteriously lose their power. No problem with what he said.
True
but I think that the insinuation was obvious. Or maybe I’m just over-sensitive and seek out flaws in Heyman’s work?
whaaaat??
Heyman is a vast well of knowledge!!11
I love emailing the guy. Say what you want about his credibility and actual knowledge of the game, but at least he responds, and his responses make me feel better about my level of intelligence.
Responses to emails I’ve sent him:
i like what you had to say and you have a cool email address, but why are the words all on the left side of the page? thanks, jh
they did have bullpen problems last year indeed. thanks, jh
you are one of many in atlanta who disagreed. your argument was sounder than most others though. sorry i am late to respond. thanks, jh
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
Shutout 7 times
scored 1 run 12 times
If you combine the two, thats pretty high
This just in
The Padres aren’t playing well. I don’t think it’s been repeated enough.
My Padres Blog
Marlins inquired about Josh Bard
The Marlins called to see if Josh Bard is available.
In their attempts to find a catcher, the Florida Marlins inquired about the availability of the Padres’ Josh Bard on Tuesday, a team source said.Another source said the offer wasn’t nearly enough for Bard, who was activated from the disabled list Thursday. Bard, who has a salary of $2.23 million this season, is hitting .217 with a home run and 11 RBIs in 138 at-bats after missing more than two months with a high ankle sprain. The 30-year-old is 4-for-8 with a homer since returning.
Though eligible for arbitration after the season, Bard is under club control through 2010.
I'm still undecided
on Bard. He did so well in 2006 and 2007, and has struggled mightily this year (before he met the fury of Pujols). Is this just a down year (like Khalil is experiencing) or is Josh not a full-time catcher? And even if he’s not a full-time catcher, is that necessarily a problem? I personally think that the Hundley/Bard combo might be lethal for a few years.
Totally unrelated...
Am I alone in hating that idiot in the wig and silver mask that does the X Games promos that are played every 2 minutes on ESPN? Did they just pull him out of the stands at a Raider game?
I think it's a very weak
attempt at caputring the YouTube generation.
I generally try not to take ESPN too seriously these days anway. Case in point.
Saturday night, my parents and I get home in time to see the last half of Baseball Tonight. They show the Web Gems that didn’t make it during the show, and at the end they show the top-5 Web gems. No mention of the Padres.
SportsCenter starts RIGHT AFTER that episode of Baseball Tonight, and lo and behold, the number 1 play of the day is Jody Gerut crashing into the CF wall to make a catch. Now tell me, how can this catch be number 1 on SportsCenter and yet not get mentioned on Baseball Tonight? And yes, other Web Gems made it on the Top 10, but none of them were number 1.
I was at the game Monday
So, I didnt see KBot smile at the end of the game.
We figured he misaligned the planets and thats why they got pwnd last night.
"Call the ball, Maverick"~Matty V. smooth sylings
I swear
there are two Jake Peavys in that picture.
"When the going gets tough... TheGrandHatching pops in later." -- WG
by TheGrandHatching on Jul 30, 2008 1:00 PM PDT reply actions
HAY GIZE
WHAT’S GOING ON IN HERE TODAY?
can you cure us of this fate
mock the litany in its face
by Axion on Jul 30, 2008 3:00 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
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