How do we fix the Padres?

by Phantom on Jul 28, 2008 11:23 AM PDT Comment 22 comments

I cross-posted this at Ducksnorts this morning, and there's a healthy discussion going on over there. However, I know that our two blog communities think a little differently, and I wanted to get the GLB opinion on this matter.

This is something I’ve been thinking a lot about recently, but how do we make this team better?

Our OF seems to be set. The Headley/Hairston/Gerut/Giles combination seems to be functioning well and all indicators at this juncture point to us keeping Giles next year. Unless someone offers Gerut stupid money, I can’t imagine not keeping that group together for next year.

Our weakest batting positions at this point are SS and C, two spots that are notoriously hard to fill and are notoriously light-hitting. I don’t think anyone would argue that Khalil and Bard aren’t having atrocious seasons, but are these just bad years or are they indicative of their true talent levels (as opposed to their track records as Padres)? But really, outside of these two positions, how do we upgrade the team?

Which brings us to pitching. I really, truly, honestly believe that our bullpen in particular and our pitching staff in general has killed this season for us. I firmly beleive that if our pitching staff were performing more like last year’s iteration that we’d be right in the thick of things.

It’s just interesting how little attention our pitching seems to get from “the experts.” Everyone points to Khalil and our catchers as our problems, but in reality, our pitching has killed us more than anything else.

What do you guys think? How do we fix this team?

This FanPost was written by a member of the Gaslamp Ball community and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Gaslamp Ball managers or SB Nation.

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Some ideas

- Sign Ollie Perez as a FA.
- Trade Kouz/someone else to the Brewers for Dave Bush/TG Jr.
- Move Chase to 3B, let Huffman/Veneable slug it out for the extra OF spot.

Any ideas, gents?

by Phantom on Jul 28, 2008 11:27 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I like this plan

Except let Hairston start in LF instead of Huffman/Venable. If Hairston and/or Gerut struggle, then let the two prospects audition.

"If I wasn't Bob Dylan, I'd probably think that Bob Dylan has a lot of answers myself." - Bob Dylan

by JollyWaffle on Jul 28, 2008 12:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

how do we fix them?

is booing a possible answer? just kidding.

btw, this IS about khalil greene isn’t it?

Bring back Balboa Stadium.

by calipatrick on Jul 28, 2008 11:36 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I KNOW exactly how to fix this team.

But....I know DePo is a GLBer and that dude will just steal all my good ideas and implement them. The Padres will start winning and we’ll finish with a solid third place in the NL West. Screw that. Nice try, Depo! I know you put Phantom up to this. I’ll give you my brilliant ideas after we win the Strasburg.

BTW – Phantom…this is about Khalil, isn’t it?

by Drama on Jul 28, 2008 11:47 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Hah

I actually see this season as a total wash, and if it means trading parts now to get better next year, I’m all about it.

But seriously, how do we improve this team? Pitching is really our problem this year.

by Phantom on Jul 28, 2008 12:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

"Pitching is really our problem this year."... that and not scoring runs the first half of the season.

Pitching is only part of the problem this year… You cannot look at box scores from April, May, and June and not see that we were struggling mightily at the plate. It has really only been the last three or four weeks that we have been able to score runs. (Remember when Wonko referenced the Padres inability to score on and off the field and we all laughed and rec’d.)
With the addition of Chase and Gerut, and Hairston heating up, 2009 could be a good year. Keeping Giles sounds like a great idea and Agon will only get better.
Agreed that SS and C are two positions that have to be thought of in the offseason. .As well as second base ( Edgar and ??? Platoon).
But the real question here is how to build a bullpen? It seems like it’s more luck than anything else. Guys have good years and get big contracts and then suck. Guys suck and another team takes a chance on them and they perform. Year to year, you never know what you’re going to get. So what can you do. Stock the farm with arms. The more the better. Establish yourself as a major player in DR and Venezuela and keep your fingers crossed.
Finally, no more 5 million dollar rolls of the dice. The sight of Jim Edmonds in a Padres uniform was a huge dissapointment to me. And I’m not looking forward to any more FO bargain basement binges.

"We will never be the darlings of the chabliss and brie crowd who disdain us."

by The Kipper on Jul 28, 2008 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Disagree

The pereceptions that the offense is as big of a problem as the pitching is a non-starter when you look at the numbers.

Baseball-Reference’s team page for the 2008 Padres lists our offense at a 96 OPS+ and our pitching at a 85 ERA+. These are normalized stats with 100 being average. So while our offense is indeed 4% below league average, the bigger problem is that our pitching is 15% worse than league average.

For some context, here are the OPS+ and the ERA+ of the Padres since they’ve been at Petco:

2004: 110 OPS+ 96 ERA+
2005: 103 OPS+ 93 ERA+
2006: 104 OPS+ 104 ERA+
2007: 101 OPS+ 108 ERA+

by Phantom on Jul 28, 2008 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

In other words

Offensively, we’re 5% worse than we were last year. Pitching-wise, we’re 23% worse. That’s pretty staggering.

Of course, these aren’t concrete comparisons as OPS+ and ERA+ are normalized for the year as well. Regardless, you can see where the bulk of our problems emerge.

by Phantom on Jul 28, 2008 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's not one thing or the other

And I wasn’t saying that it was… The stats tell part of the story (especially when they are normalized for the year), but the truth of the matter, Phantom, is that the pitching is bad and so was the offense until recently.
Specifically, injury to our starters and a bad bullpen coupled with mismanagement of both has been a huge problem. No denying it. But the way that we struggled at the plate the first two months of these season was a joke.
One of the problems seems to have corrected itself and the other is something that has to be addressed (which I think the KT and Sandy Almighty are currently working on).
2009 Wish List…
3 starting pitchers
A closer (especially when we have to save games again)
Some fresh faces in the pen (maybe they should have MLB experience, regardless of whether they are killing AAA batters)
Experienced 2B to platoon with Edgar
System Upgrade for the K Bot (but I’m fine with keeping him, as long as he brings the average up just a little)
Another catcher to platoon with Bard. No more Barret. Maybe it’s Hundley (he’s got two months of tryouts to go).

"We will never be the darlings of the chabliss and brie crowd who disdain us."

by The Kipper on Jul 28, 2008 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It could be something other than pitching...

I’ll disagree with you and say that we should be focusing on offense to improve this team.

I’d say that the ERA+ is not a true measure of how good our pitching staff has been or what we need to do to “improve” it. CY is removed from the equation and that hurts, but I’d suggest that this season’s poor ERA+ is thanks to Bud Black’s mismanagement of the pitching staff in general. Even last season, we critiqued him for leaving perfectly good pitchers in the bullpen in favor of completely wearing down a set of 2 or 3 relievers. This season, he leaves pitchers in for too long at a stretch, allowing pitchers to stay in well after they’ve lost their effectiveness in a game. Is that the pitcher’s fault? No. Unlike the OPS+, which is really on the player, I’d argue that many of the stats that get looked at for pitchers (especially when taken into the context of the whole of the pitching staff) can be credited at least in part to the manager.

Improve the team by focusing on offense and finding a new manager.

by Dex on Jul 28, 2008 2:53 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

i agree that 90% of the blame lies with Bud Black's idiocy

wow, i didn’t even blame Michael Barrett…

must be growin up…

www.wellbelowthemendozaline.blogspot.com

by justdave on Jul 28, 2008 3:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Certainly Bud Black

has to shoulder a lot of the blame here. But my question was how do we improve this team? There really aren’t a lot of positional upgrades we can make. We’ve got a better shot at improving the pitching staff, in my opinion.

by Phantom on Jul 28, 2008 8:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

addition by subtraction

I also wouldn’t figure any positional player safe except for Adrian. It would seem to me that we’re in need of a future right fielder, and could use a left fielder that we’re confident is capable of playing an entire season. To say that Gerut can’t be improved upon is strange. Second base could use an upgrade. Third base isn’t safe. SS isn’t safe. Catcher obviously isn’t safe.

When we played the Yankees, they had better players than us from top to bottom except 1B and if Giambi had a mustache in February, then even that might be a close call. We can definitely improve our position players.

First thing though. Make the management move. Easy move. Get somebody who can implement the philosophy that the front office supposedly has.

by Dex on Jul 28, 2008 9:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes yes and yes

by Winfield's Ghost on Jul 31, 2008 10:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

After thinking about this for a while

I agree that Black creates some of those situations for the pitchers, but the ERA+ numbers still reflect the efforts of the entire staff. So while, yes, Black might let Thatcher hang out to dry and pull him after he loads the bases, that next guy MUST get the inherited runners. I’m not sure where you can find information on this kind of thing, but Andy Masur was saying on the broadcast the other day that our relievers have let almost 50% of their inherited runners score. That is, by almost any measure, completely unacceptable.

by Phantom on Jul 28, 2008 10:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Some of the posters on DePo's blog are discussing a trade for Manny Ramirez

As valuable as he could be to this team, $20m is a lot to take on, not to mention how much we would have to trade. Do we even have enough to give up that the Red Sox want?

"If I wasn't Bob Dylan, I'd probably think that Bob Dylan has a lot of answers myself." - Bob Dylan

by JollyWaffle on Jul 28, 2008 3:28 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

at this point

I think the Sox are happy with somebody who isn’t popular with their fans trashing the team and a way out of the contract.

Bag of maple bats and $20 million and he’s ours!!!

by Dex on Jul 28, 2008 3:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I doubt we could afford to pay for Manny's hair extensions

let alone pay Manny.
and do we need him at this point? Nah.

"We will never be the darlings of the chabliss and brie crowd who disdain us."

by The Kipper on Jul 28, 2008 4:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Manny is worth 20 mil or whatever

there are very few clutch hitters in MLB today. I can think of 1 in 20 instances this year, when a mainline Padre has stepped up when needed and gotten that clutch hit that has won a game. Manny is one of the few guys that can deliver – Pujois, Jeter, Ortiz, Suzuki, Wright, Utley, Lee, Hunter, Berkman and even Bradley? However you decide, there are less than 10 clutch hitters in the league. What the F is that worth – 20 mil – heck yes. The Pads had the ultimate clutch hitter in Bradley and wasted the deal of a lifetime. Milty didn’t help. If you want to win, you need a clutch hitter as much as you need a top rank pitcher.

"Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana"
Groucho Marx

by planetjeffy on Jul 29, 2008 1:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good Discussion on the Padres Fix at Ducksnorts

We’ve all got our ideas and the players that we would like to see on the team. If some of the ideas could become a reality or are just pure fantasy, we won’t know until the FO pulls the trigger.
I think everyone agrees that we will need 3 starters. Who would you guys take?
The bullpen needs a lot of help. Again, what players would you guys like to see next year?
...and the third most glaring need would be catcher? Does anyone like the idea of getting Ramon Hernandez back?

"We will never be the darlings of the chabliss and brie crowd who disdain us."

by The Kipper on Jul 28, 2008 6:21 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Adam Dunn

is a good start.

Baseball was, is and always will be to me the best game in the world. -Babe Ruth

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Jul 29, 2008 12:41 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I like

the team we have right now. Not the season, but the team that has been put together as a result of bad FO moves, injuries, poor performance etc. If I am going to build a line up for next year, I am thinking:

Jody Gerut
Egon
Agon
Kouz
Headly
Hairston
Kahlil
Hundley/Bard

We have had plenty of injuries this season, and the biggest difference between this and the 07 club is the bullpen. The FO dismantled some of the B list bullpeners in the offseason, and it turns out we needed those guys. We got Myrow to replace Clark. I like the Hariston, Gerut, Headley, Giles outfield. I like our infield, hopefully Kahlil can turn it around next year. Let’s get rid of Iguchi, and get a utility guy. Hopefully Estes is healthy next season. Maddux back for a one year? Wolf back for a one year? We need a couple of good bullpen guys, then we are good. We should learn our lesson from the Edmonds, Iguchi deals.

by jtothepizzle77 on Aug 1, 2008 1:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs