Should the Padres be Buyers or Sellers?

by jbox on Jun 30, 2008 12:14 PM PDT

Is it too late for the 2008 Padres? Is it time to sell off veterans for a chance to build toward the future? Or do they still have a chance to make a run at the horrible NL West?

Buy or Sell? The Choice is yours... but choose wisely.

Buy or Bye Bye?

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Should the Padres be Buyers or Sellers?

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Buying and Selling

I made the mistake of thinking this team was ready to be a seller a couple of years ago because they were not built for the long haul. The fleecings of Jon Daniels (AGon and CY), Mark Shapiro (Kouz), Theo Epstein (Meredith and Bard), and Omar Minaya (Cameron, Bell), the Piazza signing and the Milton Bradley hail mary helped in the short term, but the problem still remains. I was recently considering what this team could look like in 2010 and beyond and even with the minor league help on the way more help is needed (and free agency, no matter how much the Padres can or cannot spend, will not help enough). The best way to get that help is to get an influx of talent via trades. Maddux, Wolf, Giles, Iguchi, EGon, Gerut, PMac, Hariston, Greene, Barrett, Clark, etc. will not be parts of the next winning San Diego team. Therefore they must go. And truthfully, with how bad this team has played over the last few weeks, replacing these guys with Portland players may not completely remove us from the NL West pennant race.

How much worse could a team be with:
C: Hundley/Carlin
1B: AGo
2B: Stansberry
3B: Kouz
SS: LRod
LF: Headley
CF: Venable
RF: Ambres
Starters: Peavy, Young, Hensley, Baek, Banks

Michael Barrett for Retirement in '08. Bring back Piazza!

by Wonko on Jun 30, 2008 12:44 PM PDT 0 recs

The thing is

Who can we really trade, other than maybe Maddux. How are we going to trade position players who can’t hit (assuming AGon is off-limits.) Only Edgar really comes to mind, which I am completely against, keep him here with his brother. I love Greene, but I don’t think he is ever going to consistently hit ML pitching. Kouz is streaky, sell him while he’s hot, I guess. Giles is too old and expensive for most teams, I think we are better off keeping him here. We had a window where Wolf might have looked attractive to other teams, but he is losing value rapidly. I might be wrong about this, but I have watched every single inning of every televised game this year except for two. The bottom line is the Padres are stuck with a bunch of valueless-on-the-trade-market players and an anemic farm system. One option that might get me crucified is to consider trading Peavy to a team for a raft of prospects a la the Oakland-Arizona Haran deal. Other than that, it may be a long time before anything gets better. If I am feeling this bad stuck in Florida, I can only imagine the mood in SD.

by I_Can_Still_Pitch on Jun 30, 2008 1:05 PM PDT up 0 recs

I don't think they are valueless

They just have very little value. Trading Giles while throwing some money to the team that takes him and getting a low minor leaguer with some upside has value to us in that it frees up monies for next (Giles has a $3 mill buyout next year). Wolf definitely has value no matter if he looks a little worse than before. Teams always need pitching and again it doesn’t matter what we get in return because if he finishes the year with us we get nothing in return and have to pay him all his performance bonuses. Keeping Edgar makes no sense if he has value, but we get nothing for him when he becomes a free agent, then he should be traded. Gerut could be an okay platoon player or a pinch hitter somewhere, Greene seems to capture some teams’ imaginations, and Iguchi was wanted at last years deadline. There is plenty to sell, you just aren’t going to get any studs back. Trading Peavy after extending him to a friendly deal makes no sense. You will never get enough value in return. There are no more teams with enough ammo to make a Haren-type deal (and Peavy is far more proven and younger than Haren).

Michael Barrett for Retirement in '08. Bring back Piazza!

by Wonko on Jun 30, 2008 1:50 PM PDT up 0 recs

I guess I should summarize my point better

All players who have no value beyond this season must be traded in an effort to save and money and get something that might help the future of the franchise (no matter how small of a return you might get). All players who are under contract for this team in 2010 and beyond (AGon, Peavy, Young, Bell, Kouz, Headley) should be kept in an effort to build the franchise around this core.

Michael Barrett for Retirement in '08. Bring back Piazza!

by Wonko on Jun 30, 2008 1:54 PM PDT up 0 recs

Fair assessment

What is really painful for me in some ways is that I am close to Tampa, so I have been following them in the 7 years I have been in Florida, that’s where I go to see my MLB ball. Watching that team slowly and methodically build a winner with mostly draft picks has been something to see. They should be good for a while.
I grew up in SD and lived there until I had to move here,so I will always be a Pads fan, I was at every game in Miami this May. I went through many a horrible season, and always remained loyal; it’s just my dog is tired of getting kicked.
On a positive note, I live right down the street from Space Coast Stadium, where the Brevard Manatees play. I watched Inman for the better part of a season, and he has tremendous potential. We’ll see how he develops. Garrison was decent as well.

by I_Can_Still_Pitch on Jun 30, 2008 2:03 PM PDT up 0 recs

one more thing to add

According to Forbes, the Padres have the third highest profit margin in the league. They need to spend money, not save it. If not, attendance goes down, profit goes down, Hulk sad.

by I_Can_Still_Pitch on Jun 30, 2008 2:15 PM PDT up 0 recs

When I said save money

I meant save it for useful purposes, like locking up younger players or signing International prospects or draft picks. As much as you like to see your team spend money, spending it in non-beneficial ways does not help anyone involved (except maybe the sports writers because they get something to talk about). The Padres also need to get out of the debt they incurred from taking on much of the cost of Petco Park. As long as they have that debt they can’t increase the payroll due to MLB rules.

Michael Barrett for Retirement in '08. Bring back Piazza!

by Wonko on Jun 30, 2008 2:24 PM PDT up 0 recs

From Forbes.

The San Diego Padres are being squeezed by their debt service on Petco Park. The team financed $173 million of Petco Park’s $285 million cost and owns 30% of the stadium. But nonbaseball events have been slow to come to the ballpark, and last season’s budget included a reported $14 million cash contribution from owner John Moores. The Padres will probably need more capital calls to increase their player payroll. For the past few years Moores has used his own money to build the franchise, investing in a baseball academy in the Dominican Republic, improvements to Petco Park and a bigger bonus pool for amateur talent.

$14 million dumped on top just to stay afloat.

can you cure us of this fate
mock the litany in its face

by Axion on Jun 30, 2008 3:02 PM PDT up 0 recs

So, according to this thread

Forbes says Padres have the third highest profit margin, but require cash contributions from the owner to pay for their player payroll and other expenditures. I’m no mathematician, but unless the “third highest profit margin” is a negative number something is amiss.

Michael Barrett for Retirement in '08. Bring back Piazza!

by Wonko on Jun 30, 2008 3:32 PM PDT up 0 recs

The numbers are misleading

Probably because they don’t take into acount non-baseball expenses like the stadium payout. Kind of like the Yankess lose money, but turn a tremendous profit due to YES.

by I_Can_Still_Pitch on Jun 30, 2008 7:13 PM PDT up 0 recs

Problem is

we don’t have much to sell.

FIRE BUD BLACK! RETIRE HOFFMAN, GILES, AND MADDUX! TRADE HEADLEY, KOUZMANOFF, AND GREENE!

by sdsuaztec4 on Jun 30, 2008 1:15 PM PDT 0 recs

agreed

Black has been less than spectacular. Especially puzzling is his management of the pitching, considering he was a pitcher, and a good pitching coach. He consistently makes bad decisions and as for his go to guys: Hoffman blew two shots at the post-season last year, and is worse this year, and don’t even get me started on Meredith. Bell is solid, but he is only one guy and is reliable as a set-up man, but is too hittable to be a closer. The once revered San Diego bullpen is now a pathetic shadow of its former self.

by I_Can_Still_Pitch on Jun 30, 2008 1:30 PM PDT up 0 recs

Sell Sell Sell

I agree that there is not a lot of value though… maybe we can package Giles and Maddux/Wolf for a decent prospect. Wait until there is a corner outfield injury for a contender and then approach them offering Giles and a starter.

by SanDiegoJosh on Jun 30, 2008 2:15 PM PDT 0 recs

Although I don't support

this thinking, someone at DS has a very reasonable assessment on this week. Basically, the poster thinks we might want to hold off on making any moves until after this week,a s we have six in-division games against the Rox and the Snakes.

I think we should sell now, but if we manage to win this week, it will give the FO some pause.

by Phantom on Jun 30, 2008 3:36 PM PDT 0 recs

Don't support that thinking either

Even if the Padres were able to win every game this week, at best it means you “might” have a shot in your division. But probably on a more realistic note, you are better than one really bad team and catching another one during a slump. And ultimately, the Padres want to win more than just the division. They want to be a competitive playoff team. Right now, they’ve pretty much shown that they can’t compete with most of the other teams in the NL on a consistent basis let alone the AL teams. So what would be the point in waiting to pull the trigger?

by sacpadre on Jun 30, 2008 4:15 PM PDT up 0 recs

Playoff Revenues?

FIRE BUD BLACK! RETIRE HOFFMAN, GILES, AND MADDUX! TRADE HEADLEY, KOUZMANOFF, AND GREENE!

by sdsuaztec4 on Jun 30, 2008 4:20 PM PDT up 0 recs

Those F*cking Cardinals

How does LaRussa do it?

Outside of Pujols, who are those guys?

They take converted accountants and librarians and they kick our ass every season…I’m so sick of it

by pasadenapadre on Jun 30, 2008 5:01 PM PDT 0 recs

Matty V?

FIRE BUD BLACK! RETIRE HOFFMAN, GILES, AND MADDUX! TRADE HEADLEY, KOUZMANOFF, AND GREENE!

by sdsuaztec4 on Jun 30, 2008 5:09 PM PDT up 0 recs

Currently

They are winning because they are playing very good defense and their pitchers are just dropping balls (not many walks, not an extraordinary amount of K’s) in the strikezone and praying they find a fielder. Somehow this strategy is working out for them. They are getting career hitting years out of Ludwick, Schumaker, and Ankiel (I will bet anybody that those guys will never be this good again). Not to mention Braden Looper and Adam Wainwright hitting very well (Looper especially so). Also, Yadier Molina suddenly realized what that wooden thing is for that they keep making him carry around. Also, they have the best hitter in baseball.

As for 2006. They got lucky (and I still blame that stupid “God Bless America” song for letting Carpenter rest up after running the bases in the top of the 7th, why on earth do we need to stop everything to sing a song?). In 2005 they were better than us. In 1996 they were better than us.

Michael Barrett for Retirement in '08. Bring back Piazza!

by Wonko on Jun 30, 2008 5:15 PM PDT up 0 recs