Is Trevor "Done"?

by LynchMob on Apr 26, 2008 2:40 PM PDT

There are many ways to look at "who is the Padres closer of the future"? For a while now, the roto community has called this "CIW" = Closer in Waiting ... but that has a more short-term focus ... ie. who's the guy who will close "now" if the currently closer gets hurt. Well, I'm interested in 3 questions ...

1. Who can/should close for the Padres if Trevor were to get hurt today?

2. If Trevor's performance makes it clear that he's "done", who can/should close for the Padres at that time?

3. Who can/should close for the Padres in 2009 and beyond?

These questions come from the hot debate on Trevor's status ... I happen to think he's now "done" ... and what I mean by that is that I no longer expect him to be successful in >80% of his appearances.

I've created a group-think way to see what the current general consensus on this is ... Here’s a way to chime in on the question of “Is Trevor Done?” …

http://www.predictify.com/auctionview.aspx?ID=3873

The question for the group is this: What will be the ratio of the number of Saves + Wins that Trevor Hoffman, pitcher for the San Diego Padres, gets credited with versus the number of Blown Saves + Losses that Trevor Hoffman gets credited with, during the month of May, 2008?

You have until the end of April to weigh in … so far, 19 folks have predicted … and the distribution of preditions so far is pretty mixed.

We’ll see if this helps us learn anything … as we all struggle with the 3 complex questions at the top of this post ...

Thank-you, Gaslamp Ball, for a forum for this discussion ...

LM

This FanPost was written by a member of the Gaslamp Ball community and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Gaslamp Ball managers or SB Nation.

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Comments

Can I suggest that you add a poll to this fanpost?

otherwise you aren’t going to get as many people voting since you have to register for the link you have.

by jbox on Apr 26, 2008 5:47 PM PDT reply actions

here you go ...

as you wish …

http://www.gaslampball.com/2008/4/27/462088/how-will-trevor-do-in-may

and i’m interested in alternative ways that we can explore the question of “is trevor done” via polls. there are many ways to define “done” ... for me today, i think he’s done because i don’t think he’ll be successful in >80% of his outings …

by LynchMob on Apr 27, 2008 8:50 PM PDT up reply actions

Last chance ...

Today’s your last chance to put a stake in the sand with respect to your expectations for Trevor for the month of May …

http://www.predictify.com/auctionview.aspx?ID=3873

In this forum, there are currently 102 responses (presumably a mixed/national demographic) with 16% predicting Trevor to have >80% success in May vs 54% at 65-80% and 22% at 50-65% and 9% at

This is just a way to go "on record" … and to start to see if a group can/does have better insights than you do …

The way I’m looking at this is that this is giving me a forum to be clear about what I think Trevor’s status is … and a quick/clean way to know that I’m wrong should Trevor do what I truly hope he does!

Or if you don’t want to sign up for predictify.com (which is free and I’ve found interesting), here’s the same poll here at GLB …

http://www.gaslampball.com/2008/4/27/462088/how-will-trevor-do-in-may

And to me, it’s interesting to note that the 68 folks who have voted here so far (presumably Padre fans) are 54% predicting Trevor to have >80% success versus 25% at 65-80%, 8% at 50-65%, and 11% at

I don’t think either poll has much significance … but perhaps when we meet up at Cooperstown for Trevor’s HOF induction, this will provide insights into the end-game part of Trevor’s MLB story.

by LynchMob on Apr 30, 2008 10:14 AM PDT reply actions