Nothing makes sense anymore... does this?

by zotzotpadre on Nov 12, 2008 4:49 PM PST Comment 13 comments

So for my own knowledge, I went back, found the Haren-to-Arizona and Sabathia-to-Milwaukee trades and looked up the corresponding prospect return Oakland and Cleveland received (grades are based on various top-20 lists I found on sbnation.com, regardless of how correct they may be - I used only sbnation.com lists to determine the grades for all of the following trades, so I'm assuming they're somewhat equivalent) ...

First, the Oakland/Arizona Trade. I understand Haren was cheaper, and came along with a fringe prospect in Connor Robertson, but this may be the closest thing to equivalent in return... (a B+ SP, ML SP, C+ SP, B+ 1B, B+ and B- OF) and that's a lot of grade-B players going back to Oakland.

Oakland sends SP Dan Haren and SP Connor Robertson(C) to Arizona in return for SPs Brett Anderson(B+), Dana Eveland(4 or 5 in rotation), and Greg Smith(C+), infielder Chris Carter(B+), and outfielders Aaron Cunningham(B-) and Carlos Gonzalez(B+).

Second, the Cleveland/Milwaukee trade. This trade is different in that it happened in the middle of a season and involved only sending two months worth (and it was a damn good 2 months) of CC Sabathia. The players sent to Cleveland include a B+ OF/DH, a couple of Pitchers at C and C+ and a player to be named later B-).

Cleveland sends SP CC Sabathia to Milwaukee in return for OF/DH Matt LaPorta(B+), P Zach Jackson(C), P Rob Bryson(C+) and a player to be named later (I did a quick search and the best name I could find was 3B Taylor Green (B-))

Thirdly, I don't expect the Padres to get a Haren-load of gold but I also expect more than Cleveland got for CC Sabathia. Looking at the similar Braves (based on the new top 20 for 2009) and Cubs top prospect lists, I find (and can only hope for) the following (this could go a hundred different directions, but whatever...) :

San Diego sends SP Jake Peavy to Atlanta in exchange for SS Yunel Escobar (B+?), SP Tommy Hanson (B+) and OF Gorkys Hernandez (B-)

or San Diego sends SP Jake Peavy to Atlanta in exchange for SS Yunel Escobar (B+?), OF Jordan Schafer (B+) and Morton/Reyes (4 or 5 in rotation) and SP Jeff Locke (B-)

It is not crazy to expect that in return, right? Seems like the Braves won't give in. Anyways, as for the Cubs (and I don't like this idea as much as the Braves deal and I also know less about who it would take from the cubs - probably why everyone's calling the Braves the frontrunners)...

San Diego sends SP Jake Peavy to Chicago(NL) in return for 3B Josh Vitters (B+), SP Sean Marshall (4 or 5 in rotation), P Donald Veal (B-) and OF Felix Pie (B-?)

I wasted a lot of time on this, so I hope you enjoy it... and please leave comments/corrections/critiques - because I have no idea what I'm doing. Basically nothing makes sense with the trade offers the Braves are throwing out. I understand not wanting to part with Hanson or any other top prospect, but you have to deal talent to get talent. If I were KT, I would take Peavy for 2009 unless I get one of those two offers from the Braves.

This FanPost was written by a member of the Gaslamp Ball community and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Gaslamp Ball managers or SB Nation.

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"because I have no idea what I'm doing."

You’re gonna fit in well here.

Nice work.

by Drama on Nov 12, 2008 5:55 PM PST reply actions 2 recs

I think you are underestimating

The value of getting a proven major leaguer in Escobar. Complete with hitting ability and defense at a premium position. In the other deals you the teams were getting a bunch of quality prospects, but they were either fringe major leaguers or unproven prospects and none of the them projected to/played a premium position like SS or CF.

Also, keep in mind that the names you mention come from conjectures made by Buster Olney and Ken Rosenthal and aren’t necessarily the exact topics of discussion by the Padres and Braves. I personally have no idea how these trade discussions develop, but I’m pretty darn sure that Olney and Rosenthal don’t really have the inside scoop that the media portrays them as having. More an inside sniff.

Homer: Ohhhh, The Denver Broncos.
Marge: Whats wrong with the Denver Broncos?
Homer: Marge you just don't understand football.

by Wonko on Nov 12, 2008 7:48 PM PST reply actions 1 recs

i think i'm underestimating

Thanks for the input. I guess the point I was trying to make was that not getting one of the Braves top prospects in return (along with Yunel) doesn’t make sense, especially after seeing the haul that the A’s got for Haren. That being said, I understand this is a different situation than when the Haren trade went down.

Good point that Olney and Rosenthal don’t know the real deal, but they’ve been speculating on trades and following Baseball longer than I’ve been alive, and they probably have better insight than I do.

Carlos Gonzalez, of the Haren, and most recently the Holliday deal, is a CF. He also projects to be something like Schafer, right?

by zotzotpadre on Nov 12, 2008 8:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd say that the upside for CarGo

Is more like Mark Kotsay. However, not everyone agrees that he can play CF in the majors.

Homer: Ohhhh, The Denver Broncos.
Marge: Whats wrong with the Denver Broncos?
Homer: Marge you just don't understand football.

by Wonko on Nov 12, 2008 11:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I honestly don't know

how we can even talk about trading Jake to Atlanta without getting back at least one of Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, Jordan Shafer, or Jason Heyward. I don’t think you can justify trading perhaps the best pitcher in Major League Baseball without getting back one of the other team’s top three prospects.

by FriarBryan on Nov 12, 2008 10:21 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

The main reason is this

No one really trades their top prospects anymore, especially when they are the caliber of Hanson, Schafer or Heyward. And Jair Jurrjens is way to valuable (due to his salary) for any team to trade. Peavy is better than Jurrjens, but Jurrjens makes up less than 1% of their payroll. I think it’s totally reasonable to believe that Jake is worth those things, but trades like that just aren’t out there. Using what I gather from Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America and John Sickels, none of the prospects involved in the Sabathia, Haren or Santana deals are as valuable as any of the names you mention. However Escobar probably is as valuable as those guys. And Gorkys is probably near as good as most of those guys (plus he may be the exciting speedster Padres fan seem to crave). So maybe the Padres are getting an okay deal.

Homer: Ohhhh, The Denver Broncos.
Marge: Whats wrong with the Denver Broncos?
Homer: Marge you just don't understand football.

by Wonko on Nov 12, 2008 11:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think

It’s because the Padres need to unload Peavy’s salary more than the Braves need to try and acquire him. There is a large contingent of Braves fans that are fairly ambivalent to the trade as a whole, because then the team could keep Escobar, and all its top prospects, and instead go for other SP’s on the free agent market.

No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.

by royhobbs on Nov 13, 2008 7:02 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Its not just Braves fans

The Baseball Prospectus prospect guru Kevin Goldstein mentioned that the Braves would be foolish to give up any of their top prospects to acquire Peavy.

Homer: Ohhhh, The Denver Broncos.
Marge: Whats wrong with the Denver Broncos?
Homer: Marge you just don't understand football.

by Wonko on Nov 13, 2008 10:18 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

A Braves fan's perspective

Hey guys, I’m a regular over at Talking Chop, and we’ve had a rather robust internal debate about this deal which now seems to be, for now, dead. Personally, I don’t think that the deal we heard about in the last few days, Peavy for Escobar, Reyes/Morton, Gorkys Hernandez, and Locke, would have been a good move for us. As a salary dump, it would have benefited you guys greatly. Here’s why I feel that way -

1. I’m not a believer in Peavy’s “ace” status over the remainder of his contract. It’s not so much because of his PETCO-boosted performance as it is his rather wild delivery. I’ve seen a couple of writeups that indicate that Peavy, who if I am not mistaken did miss time this year with elbow soreness, does not have mechanics that are conducive to a long career as a major league starter. All pitchers carry significant risk, but I think it’s fair to say that Peavy’s risks are higher than average. I’ve got a feeling that the Padres front office knows this and wants to cash this chip in at peak value. And, let’s face it, 2008 was the worst season he’s had since his debut as a starter, though it was still quite good.

2. In Atlanta, we have no immediate replacement for Yunel Escobar, whom despite suffering nagging injuries was one of the NL’s best shortstops. Defensively, he is a gold glove candidate and has good on-base skills. He doesn’t have great power or speed, but he does enough to be very valuable while he’s still nice and cheap.

3. We’re in rebuilding mode anyways, and unless Peavy is that ace that he’s been in the past, it takes us in the wrong direction. Trading prospects, even our mid-level ones that were mentioned in this deal, in conjunction with a cheap major league starter is simply not worth it for our organization long term.

In the end, I’ve got a feeling that our offer is the best that you guys will see. The Cubs have little depth in their minor league pitching, and oddly enough the best fit may be the Dodgers, but I just can’t see Peavy getting dealt to a divisional rival. Too much potential for public backlash with such a move.

by BraveBronco0121 on Nov 14, 2008 8:12 PM PST reply actions 1 recs

Jake Peavy front-runners

The Braves just said that they have no interest in Jake Peavy anymore. This leaves the Cubs to get Jake Peavy. They might get him lower than they would of got with a bidding war with the Braves. The Cubs though, usually give either too much for someone or they give the same they would of given anyways. I don’t see Padres trading Peavy to the Dodgers, that is worse case scenario. They might get some a lot tough from the Dodgers. The Yankees might bud nto this deal though, because they have a lot in their farm, They might get Peavy.

The Trade-Maker

by dasox313 on Nov 15, 2008 7:51 AM PST reply actions 0 recs