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Can Prospectus' PECOTA predict a president? Possibly.

I'm stepping juuuuust outside of our general unwritten policy to not talk about politics to point out a New York Magazine article profiling Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus and how he carries baseball into politics. It's long, but fascinating if you're into baseball and politics, which, let's face it, I know you are. I've seen you waving your flags in the comments sections.

His first taste of political notoriety:

Silver, who was writing anonymously as “Poblano” and receiving about 800 visits a day, disagreed with this consensus. He’d broken the numbers down demographically and come up with a much less encouraging outcome for Clinton: a two-point squeaker in Indiana, and a seventeen-point drubbing in North Carolina. On the night of the primaries, Clinton took Indiana by one and lost North Carolina by fifteen. The national pundits were doubly shocked: one, because the results were so divergent from the polls, and two, because some guy named after a chili pepper had predicted the outcome better than anyone else.

And a tiny snippet about what he's up to:

So he came up with a system that predicts a pollster’s future performance based on how good it’s been in the past. In finding his average, Silver weights each poll differently—ranking them according to his own statistic, PIE (pollster-introduced error)—based on a number of factors, including its track record and its methodology. One advantage of this system is that, during the primaries, the system actually got smarter. Because each time a poll performed well in a primary, its ranking improved.

I love this. Self correcting system based on past and recent performance.

I know I totally tempted you, but if you have comments, let's stay away from specifics.

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Let's get it out of the way

McCain Sucks!
Obama Sucks!

Good story and read

by thenerdhater on Oct 14, 2008 2:21 PM PDT reply actions  

Nate Silver

He was on the Colbert Report talking about this. Keith Olberman has had him on a couple of times I believe.

link

Homer: Ohhhh, The Denver Broncos.
Marge: Whats wrong with the Denver Broncos?
Homer: Marge you just don't understand football.

by Wonko on Oct 14, 2008 2:24 PM PDT reply actions  

yea he was on Olberman

I’m pretty sure cus I saw him before I saw him on the Colbert Report and i’m pretty sure it was on Olberman

"Real baseball should be played in the daytime, in the sunshine." - Lou Gehrig

by C8LIN B on Oct 14, 2008 3:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

He's been all over the place recently

It’s really interesting stuff, though, the formulas/percentages/mathislame stuff can make my eyes glaze over.

by Winfield's Ghost on Oct 14, 2008 2:26 PM PDT reply actions  

Hey!

What happened to my text?

Anyhoo – sports AND politics? SWOON!

by Christina on Oct 14, 2008 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

yes!

Finally the magic formula to get Christina back into the comments!

by Dex on Oct 14, 2008 3:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

Don't blame me

I’m voting for Kodos

Isn't it enough to know that I ruined a pony making a gift for you?

by Axion on Oct 14, 2008 3:47 PM PDT reply actions  

Yes!

I don’t understand why we have to build a ray gun to aim at a planet I’ve never even heard of.

by pjbno4 on Oct 14, 2008 8:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

What happened to the no politics rule?

For the record, this is not my attempt to imply subtly that Belichick is nothing without cheating and Tom Brady. Seriously. I am straight-out saying: Belichick is nothing without cheating and Tom Brady ~ DJ Gallo

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Oct 14, 2008 4:00 PM PDT reply actions  

This has to do with numbers

So it falls under the nerd clause to the politics rule. Fair game.

by Dalton on Oct 15, 2008 7:13 AM PDT up reply actions  

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