NL West - A 2 Horse Race?

by CM Strapz on Aug 15, 2007 8:22 AM PDT Comment 23 comments

First diary - by the way, so be gentle. :)

I was perusing the NL West standings this morning, and I noticed that the Padres have 44 games remaining as do the Rockies. The Dodgers have 43 games left and are 6.5 games out. Assuming the Padres/D-Backs can finish up .500 the rest of the way out, that means the Dodgers would have to go 28-15 over the next 43 to catch up and the Rocks would have to go 27-17. Is this possible? Or do we write off everybody but the D-Backs?

This FanPost was written by a member of the Gaslamp Ball community and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Gaslamp Ball managers or SB Nation.

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I don't know that I would

ever write anybody off, simply because this is baseball and anything could happen (I think a lot of people wrote off the D-backs earlier this season). And my hatred for the Dodgers makes it hard to ignore what's going on with them (too much fun revelling in their failures). But you do raise a good little bit of information here. We're getting to a point in the season where being 6 games back means a little more, doesn't it?

by Demoira on Aug 15, 2007 8:28 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

This is our division.

The only race I see is how long it takes for us to get back in first place and stay there.

by TheThirdGonzalez on Aug 15, 2007 8:31 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I knew I liked you.

by Demoira on Aug 15, 2007 8:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

YEAH!

That is the Padres experience they keep talking about.

by Deb on Aug 15, 2007 8:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dodgers are done

I really think LA is done - a lot of their concerns at the beginning of the season are playing themselves out in a worst case scenario now.

AZ has some pitching issues, but their young guys, you would think, would actually start to play better. Young and Drew aren't really hitting right now and it wouldn't be a surprise for them to come around. I think with a guy like Webb at the top, even with pitching issues, they are gonna stick around.

CO still concerns me. Sweeping this series would do a great deal to ease that concern. But they can flat out hit - not just at Coors, but on the road, too - and their pitching is much improved from years past. What we saw from Francis was an anomaly last night - based on his performance so far, you have to assume he's gonna be good the rest of the way. Fuentes is back as of today. They are mix and matching their backend starters (but so are we) and their bullpen isn't as strong as ours - but their hitting could carry them a long way. I could easily see them going 27-17. (They are also just as capable of going 17-27 - maddeningly inconsistent - and I'm hoping for that.)

It's gonna be a long month and a half.

by Winfield's Ghost on Aug 15, 2007 9:12 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I'd count out the Giants. That's it.

All the divisional match-ups down the stretch are going to make it all pretty wild. Especially because there isn't really anyone in the NL West who consistently beats every other team--we've handled the Dodgers, but not Arizona. Arizona has split their season series with the Dodgers, so far (even after that sweep). The Rockies are able to take it to anyone. It's a weird round robin.

The Dodgers, it's true, have looked woeful lately. Even getting back to winning half their games would be a huge improvement. Let's hope they're far enough back by the time they start hitting again that it doesn't matter.

And, really, truly, the D-backs just have to regress to the mean. They have to. I believe in the numbers--they won't keep playing this way. It's too lucky. Right? At any rate, they won't keep going 17-3 over 20 game stretches.

by goose1 on Aug 15, 2007 9:27 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: The numbers

Don't trust them. There are always going to be outliers. In 2005, the D-Bags finished with 11 more wins than their expected totals. That same year, the White Sox finished with 8 more. Hell, even the Pads finished with 5 more than would be expected from their RS/RA (as well as the Yanks and Red Sox).

I feel like I've beaten a dead horse at this point, but the season isn't long enough for EVERY team to regress toward their XW-L. Fine, call it fucking luck. But this is around the magnitude of variance one would expect with a sample size of 162 games and a crude formula (i.e., the Pythagorean record).

"At the end, excitement maintained its hysteria." - Jerry Coleman

by TheGrandHatching on Aug 15, 2007 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

True...and like I always preach

past performance doesn't necessarily predict future performance.

Take what it is today, so fact is, they are above win loss record based on run differential. We call it luck, or whatever.

But from today and moving forward, whose to say that the DBags sport a positive run differential, that would then predict they would have a winning record.

I personally think the mindset of playing above your capabilities or whatever, is slightly overrated. After a team wins alot, there is an attitude that you can win games and I think that is more important after a while than your raw talent.

by bktabinga on Aug 15, 2007 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

of course, this is all why we play the games...

There are definitely situations where all these numbers, XW-L, pythagorean etc. etc. matter less. In the playoffs, for example, the combo of the small sample size with all the added 'beyond the box score' stuff (nerves, adrenaline, talent, luck, break-out performances) makes it sort of worthless to try to 'predict' much.

Honestly, it's less that I know the D-backs will regress, as that I really really hope that they aren't one of this year's exceptions. Call it talent, will to win, attitude, luck--call it baseball--but the D-backs have pulled out some close games that the Padres haven't (think of all our 1 run games) and it just seems like that can't ALWAYS keep happening.

If the Marlins can keep the pressure on like they did last night, then I think a couple big demoralizing losses could do a lot to halt this young D-back fire. Just let Valverde blow another few saves....

by goose1 on Aug 15, 2007 10:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Those lucky D-Bags

A couple months back, Gaslamp Baller osbug pointed me toward a great Hardball Times article that describes a number of factors that contribute to a team's Pythagorean Differential (i.e., the difference between the Actual and Expected W-L record).

I don't have time today to look specifically at the D-Bags differential, but if anyone else does I think it could be worthwhile.

"At the end, excitement maintained its hysteria." - Jerry Coleman

by TheGrandHatching on Aug 15, 2007 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bob Costas

I like his quote that statistics are like a drunk leaning against a lamppost- it's more for support than enlightenment.

by TheThirdGonzalez on Aug 15, 2007 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Speaking of luck

as Matty V pointed out recently, the Padres suffered some viciously bad luck early in the season (all those hard hit Kouz line outs come to mind), so they are due for some really good luck down the stretch here.

by Demoira on Aug 15, 2007 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Have to agree

All this time I've been saying that the D-bags are a flash in the pan and the Dodgers are the true NL West team to fear. Guess it was the other way around.

The Dodgers' offense looks like hell lately, and their pitching staff has been decimated. Nomar's on the DL and Hillenbrand is at 3rd (snicker!), and they truly appear to be in free-fall. As much as I despise them, I think they may actually be out of it. (Why do I think I still may end up eating those words..?)

The D-bags, on the other hand, showed no signs of slowing down, until last night. They were killed by the Marlins of all teams, but it didn't help that Byung-Hyun Kim pitched a horrible 1st inning. I read on the DB website that Kim will likely not start again. These guys are serious.

The Rox? I dunno. I'm not feeling it.

So yeah, I can definitely see it coming down to a 2-way race between the Pads and DBs.

by Mr Meadows on Aug 15, 2007 10:00 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Padres are improved

I like Clay better than Wells. Maddux, Peavy, Young will be very very very good down the stretch.

With Briles, Milton, Cameron and non Miles at 2nd base. Our bench improve and Agon returning to form we will be a very solid team down the stretch. The impact Milton and Brian has to our offense is amazing.

"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day. " ~Frank Sinatra

by Sammy G on Aug 15, 2007 11:58 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I think

Its a three horse race. I'm pretty sure the Dodgers are out of it. Nomar is on the DL, their starting pitching is in absolute dissary, bullpen sucks, their offense is worse than any GLBer would call the Padres offense. I won't count out the Rockies though. Their offense is too good and their pitching is the best it have ever been. The lose of Jason Hirsh for the season will probably hurt their chances, but you never can count them out. With regards to the Dbags, they have played really well this season, and have been playing exceptionally well as of late. Yet we are only 2 games back. If they regress even a little bit, I think thats all the Padres will need to surpass them, especially when Uncle Milty and Scott Hairston return, and if Clay Hensley falls into 2005 form. (Big If). Even if the DBags play out of their minds the rest of the season, we lead the wildcard and we have a great chance of getting into the playoffs that way. There was a diary earlier about how our pitching matchups might favor us on the road anyway.

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Aug 15, 2007 11:58 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Clay

*2006

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Aug 15, 2007 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Anyone know the status

of Uncle Milty? I thought he was going to be in the lineup last night, but apparently no go.

by Mr Meadows on Aug 15, 2007 12:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

He was going to start

but Buddy thought he was too much of a pimp for JF to handle and decided to go easy on him

"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day. " ~Frank Sinatra

by Sammy G on Aug 15, 2007 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I heard there was some question

about Clay starting did anybody hear KT's interview on Mighty XX this morning? What did he say?

by jbox on Aug 15, 2007 12:18 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Did he ever come on?

He usually goes on Scott & B.R. in the 8 o'clock hour, but he didn't show up when I tuned in. Scott & B.R. said they didn't know where he was, and theorized he was ducking them to avoid being asked tough questions.

by Mr Meadows on Aug 15, 2007 12:19 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I think you're right

because they were talking about him being late and I just assumed I missed it when I got out of my car.

by jbox on Aug 15, 2007 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

I listened through to almost 9am, and he never showed, and I didn't hear an explanation as to why not. Scott & BR spent the bottom half of the hour talking to some horse trainer or jockey or something.

by Mr Meadows on Aug 15, 2007 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't count anyone out.

Pads went 19 - 9 last September (after going 13 - 15 in August) to win the West. Anything can happen, especially if we have another losing streak. The Dodgers are still a good team and will make a run. Pads have to win these head to head match-ups from here out.

by planetjeffy on Aug 15, 2007 1:22 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs