On who wins the West

by Dex on Jun 26, 2007 6:28 AM PDT in News Comment 90 comments

Kruk has changed his mind. He no longer thinks the Dodgers will win the West, but rather the San Diego Padres. He even goes so far as to say that, right now, the Padres have the five best starting pitchers in the division. Does he mean best rotation? The way that he said it he seems to imply that we currently have five aces all of whom are better than every other ace in the NL West. Five aces of course is the best hand in poker, but doesn't help the fact that we all know that the Padres actually suck.

I went to bed early last night so I didn't see the outcome till just now, but that was a terrible effort by Khalil to lose the game in the 11th. If he falls on that ball it prevents the run from scoring and we get another shot. It barely even looked like he jogged to it. It looked like he was playing in, but if it completely kills his response time, then I don't know if it was the best move. If playing in is going to keep him from going all out on a ball then leave him at the grass. He has a strong enough arm that I'd rather he stop the ball and take the chance on a slightly longer throw than to have him completely bail if it's not hit right to him.

However, now that Kruk has given us his blessing, I'm pretty sure that means we've seen the best that the Padres have to offer. No postseason for us!

So, how do we fix the team for next year? Our bullpen is built on smoke and mirrors. Half of our starting rotation will qualify for discounts on coffee and museums sometime this year. We have no offense to speak of.

My offered solution: Firesale.

If we get rid of Peavy now, for the contract that we have him signed to, we can easily acquire 4-5 hot prospects to get ready for a run in 2010. We'd still have Chris Young and Geronimo to hold us over so that we're not completely embarrassed in our down years.

I'm telling you. Firesale. It's our only hope to salvage this pitiful display.

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Firesale

In addition to trading away everyone of value, we need to hold on to all of our players that will be free agents next year (Cameron, Barret...). That way we get more extra picks next draft. If we do that for the next three seasons, by the time 2010 rolls around, we should have a great minor league system. In addition, if we lower our payroll to about $25 mil for the next few years, and save up the money, we can spend $200 mil in 2010. That way we can guarantee success, because we all know that the front office's sucks because they won't spend ridiculous amounts of money to bring in free agents right now. And obviously spending tons of money is the key to victory a la Dodgers and Cubs and Mets and Yankees, who are all doing way better than us.

by osbug on Jun 26, 2007 6:43 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Dex's FIresale

This is pure smarts! What a great idea! You should go out and buy a brand new Red Sox jersey too. I also love bandwagon fans more than any other fan.

Stop trying so hard to get people to respond to your non-sense and bring it back old school! Try talking about Blum's hair. At least, you don't look retarted trying to stir up a blog!

by GoPads on Jun 26, 2007 7:10 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Blum

Blummer has awesome hair, don't knock it. It scored him a hot wife too.

Dex would never buy a Red Sox jersey, it is all about the Yankees for him. What a bandwagon fan, starting a Padres blog and all.

by osbug on Jun 26, 2007 7:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Go Pads

You aren't able to spot sarcasm when you read it, but some how you are able to use it just fine.

Stop giving us advice on how to write a blog with your insults. Try it yourself if you like, it's not as easy as you might think.

by jbox on Jun 26, 2007 8:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

the glorious loyalty oath crusade.

Seriously, can't you make people sign a document of complete support prior to getting an account?

by pjbno4 on Jun 26, 2007 8:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dex

You're Crazy!

by Jonny Dub on Jun 26, 2007 7:18 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Proof of Yankees fandom

The evidence has been right in front of us the whole time. If you need me to spell it out for you, just look at the picture in the upper right hand corner.

On the left are two (2) lights. In the center is a single (1) light. On the right are another two (2) lights.

A hidden message is embedded in a picture that we've all thought represents one of the iconic features of our neighborhood. Little did we know that Dex, subversive closet Yankees fan that he is, has cleverly selected that picture to include a subtle nod to the team which truly holds the key to his fickle heart.

2-1-2, the original New York area code. What we've been seeing as a tribute to San Diego baseball has secretly been Dex's proof of the extend to which the Yankees pervade and corrupt even our most distant corner of baseball country.

He probably giggles to himself every time that picture loads.

by Boy Howdy on Jun 26, 2007 7:26 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

OMG!

You are right. Damn you Dex!

by osbug on Jun 26, 2007 7:34 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've been caught

I'm also a Cardinals fan. I paid top dollar to put the hex on your Padres so that they would never get past my guys in the postseason. Little did I realize that it would result in a World Series! Happy days!

Steve Bartman? That was actually my idea. The whole thing. Putting him in the stands. As a Cards fan I hate the Cubs.

Also, I'm the one who sent suggestive emails to Steinbrenner's daughter so she'd dump that chump. I'm working on something so that nobody will ever run the Yankees ever again except Steinbrenner.

It feels good to come out and tell the truth.

by Dex on Jun 26, 2007 7:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

"It feels good to come out..."

This is not the best place to be throwing around that particular term.

Last night in the open thread, jbox was talking about he had "tucked" you in and that you were wearing pj's "with the flap on the backside".

by Drama on Jun 26, 2007 7:56 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Why the flap?

EWWWWWW

by Jonny Dub on Jun 26, 2007 7:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dex -

You bite your fucking tongue! Jake Peavy is the future (and current hope) of the franchise. If he goes, I go!

by Brad on Jun 26, 2007 8:01 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Forget Peavy

This is all about the 2010 season. Who cares what happens between now and then. He is going to leave us anyway when he is a free agent.

by osbug on Jun 26, 2007 8:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't think you can hang that all on Khalil

He also had the runner screening him, which probably hampered his response time. You can't blame Khalil for walking the leadoff batter and giving up all the hits in that inning.

by Phantom on Jun 26, 2007 8:07 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Khalil

...can take the blame for stupidly biting on a bogus Mark Sweeney steal.

by Drama on Jun 26, 2007 8:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Again, I think that's a little unfair

In that situation, if you can prevent a guy from getting to second to get an out by throwing out a runner, you've got to go for it. It's extremely easy for us to sit back and watch the replay and tell Khalil he's an idiot for falling for that, but he made a snap reaction. That's the whole point of hit and runs (or hit and run bluffs) isn't it? To open up a whole in the infield?

Khalil didn't make Hampson and Linebrink decide to be all over the place last nite. I think it's weak and dishonest to blame that loss on him.

by Phantom on Jun 26, 2007 8:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm embarrassed at our team

our pitching is still terrific, but why can't we hit the ball?

The Suck list:
Khalil
Cruz
Sledge
Blum
McAnulty
The Catching platoon

Help us, Kevin Towers, you're our only hope.

Immediate things we could do to improve our team:

Release Blum. Oscar Robles would be better
Get serious about short term and long term fixes for this offense. Consider trading for Adam Dunn or Delmon Young or Jeff Francoer.

We need some hitters.

by RBS on Jun 26, 2007 8:14 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

In full Khalil Defense mode, I realize this...

But he's the second best producer on our team. He's second in HR and RBI. Leaving the BoSox series, Khalil had more RBI and HR than Manny. Yeah, he's inconsistent as hell at the plate, but so is everyone else on our team. Hell, Adrian's average is sinking like crazy right now, but you're not all over him are you?

I would agree with you about needing a legit LF. I think that Barrett/Bard will work out fine. Ditch Blum and bring back Robles, that works for me too. I'm really starting to get anxious about Kouz. I'm getting uneasy whenever a ball is hit to him and he still hasn't been able to consistently put it all together.

by Phantom on Jun 26, 2007 8:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

concerned about Adrian

it may be that Adrian feels like he has to carry this team and that's affecting him at the plate; it maybe that with no one of consequence hitting behind him, he's not seeing any good pitches. adding a big bat could help that.

You're right about Khalil being the next best run producer, and I keep forgetting that we'll have Giles back soon.

Even Marcus' numbers have been dipping.

But we can all agree it's time to say goodbye to Blum.

by RBS on Jun 26, 2007 8:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with that

I'm over Blum. Any number of guys to keep once Giles is back.

by Dex on Jun 26, 2007 8:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow!...Blummer was good enough to make the

suck list. You are too kind.

Take off Cheo jr., add Branyan, Headley too if P-mac is there, we still need somebody to catch the damn ball, so they have to stay and yes, we NEED some hitters.

Now I agree.

"You are an Idiot! I-D-O-T! Idiot!!"

by The Pickmaster on Jun 26, 2007 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

it's june. we've won 42 games. we are 1 game out.

this is hardly a tragedy.

i don't have my head in the sand about needing a power bat. but we didn't win those first 42 by accident. let's get giles back in RF, find a proven hitter for left field, use our bullpen a little bit better and see how things look.

honestly, i'd be more worried if i were the dodgers. over a long season, defense like theirs is going to lose them a lot more games than our meager hitting is. our pitching is solid enough that we've won games with 2 hits. i don't want the padres to make a living off of that, but still. deep breaths: it's june. 1 game out. we've got the giants tonight. we could be back in first in a couple days. and even then, we all know this race is going down to the wire. look at the rockies, for god's sakes...this might be a 4 way battle.

by goose1 on Jun 26, 2007 8:28 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

We don't need a power back per se...we need a

good solid bat.

"You are an Idiot! I-D-O-T! Idiot!!"

by The Pickmaster on Jun 26, 2007 5:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

on peavy.

I agree with Dex. We totally trade him now, and then we RESIGN him in 2010. Like Osbug said in the first post, if we skimp a little now, we'll have 200M to spend in 2010. And a few more seasons isn't to long to wait for a chance at a winner...

"A sarcasm detector? Oh, that's real useful."

by pjbno4 on Jun 26, 2007 8:36 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

FUTURE IS NOW

Bullet points:

though I'm not feeling too good about Wells v. Zito today, unless a 6 inning limit is imposed on Boomer.

Robles has a broken wrist, or we may have seen him sooner. I still see a dignified all-star break departure for Blummer when they decide who can fill a backup ss spot.

Khalil: maybe the camera angle was deceptive on that last hit - and it was by him before there was any chance to make a play on it. I hope so. I still like what he's done this year.

Notwithstanding his clutch but catchable double last night, Adrian looks like he needs a day off. Probably should've had one over the weekend with his sore hoof. Blum anyone?

by Billy Almon on Jun 26, 2007 9:02 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Big Bat

In the Gaslamp Ball poll yesterday, I was one of the 5 blokes who voted "No, that we can win with the team we currently have."

After last night's irritating game...can I change my vote?

by Mr Meadows on Jun 26, 2007 9:47 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

no, only your team!

by ABY on Jun 26, 2007 9:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Some thoughts

Peter Gammon also gave us his blessing after Sunday's game, and even went on to say that not only are the Padre's clearly the best team in the NL West, but are probably the best team in the NL. -So pretty much we are screwed.

Khalil is going to put up .260/.340/.440 with 22 HRs by the end of the season. He is what he is, a streaky hitter who can easily be handled by a pitcher with a plus-breaking pitch.

A healthy B. Giles will help this team out a lot, getting one more tough out at the top of the lineup will take the pressures off of AGON, Cam, Barret/Bard and the others. I am also really liking Barret's approach at the plate, seems to want to use the whole field. I also thing Bard will do better with the more rest.

This team has been very unlucky. Not only have we not won as many games as we should of based on Run Differential; but we have scored LESS runs than we should of and given up MORE runs we should of. (I like deep statisical analysis). If things at least start to approach normality, we should run away with this division, as both the Dodgers and D-Backs have been extremely fortunate.

Think we can rent A-Rod for 3 months? Give up Stauffer and Ramos.

"Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!"

by Ron Mexico on Jun 26, 2007 10:05 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

run differentials

Doesn't this suggest - something the statheads don't like to talk about, or aknowledge the existence of - lack of clutch hitting?

But to add a positive note -- How about that Mike Cameron? He still refuses to swing at balls below the thigh (wait, that sounded a bit), but is killing the inside fastballs and playing great centerfield.

by Billy Almon on Jun 26, 2007 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

missing word

gay.

Am I so homophobic that I was subconsciously afraid to write it?

by Billy Almon on Jun 26, 2007 11:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

On the contrary

There have been more than a few studies showing there is no such thing as clutch hitting, or it is such a small skill as to be insignificant. Good hitters hit well, poor hitters hit not so well. At the same time, studies have shown that 95% of teams finish within +/-3 games of their expected wins based on run differential. Basically, just like everything else in baseball, the numbers should catch up to the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, and the padres still have the best chance to win the division. Of course should and will are two different things, that is why the game is played. All sarcasm aside from earlier posts, the Padres offense is still one of the better ones around.

by osbug on Jun 26, 2007 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Studies have shown

this is what I was referring to.

Padres offense one of the better ones around? I want some of what you're smoking.

by Billy Almon on Jun 26, 2007 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Umm...

They are the fourth highest scoring NL team on the road, tied with Atlanta, and one run behind Houston even though Houston has played four more road games. They ahve outscored their opponents by 35 runs at home. They are basically league average in Runs/Game, even playing in one of the lowest scoring parks in the league. Sometimes the numbers and perception don't match up.

by osbug on Jun 26, 2007 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

our offense is NOT good enough

not good enough to beat the Red Sox, probably not good enough to beat the Angels. If we want to win the whole enchilada, we'll have to go through one of those 2 teams.

by RBS on Jun 26, 2007 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Red Sox

We did outscore them over the series. I think my big protest with the negativity is the idea that our offense isn't good enough to beat teams when we've obviously beaten lots of teams and could've taken the series. If two teams are pretty evenly matched, somebody has to win that third game.

by Dex on Jun 26, 2007 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

zen paradox

And we lost two out of three, due to a lack of clutch hitting, which does not exist.

by Billy Almon on Jun 26, 2007 1:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

So tell me

How would you measure clutch hitting? Here is a list of teams the Padres are batting better than with runners in scoring position: Arizona, Atlanta, Cincinatti, Colorado, Florida, Brewers, Washington, New York, Philly, Pirates, Cardinals, Giants.

by osbug on Jun 26, 2007 1:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

outscoring them doesn't matter

over the whole series. we scored only 4 runs (i think) in the 2 games we lost. Thats not good enough.

And we didn't face schilling.

you said "we could've taken the series"

But we didn't. And I just don't want to accept losing and say "we gave it our best try. I mean we 'almost' won. doesn't that count for something?"
Because losing counts for nothing. We lost, and we won't be able to beat other good teams without an offensive addition.

by RBS on Jun 26, 2007 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Did you ever think

Could it be possible that the two games we lost were against pretty good pitchers? Doesn't good pitching beat good hitting? Boston has a very good team, but they didn't exactly smash us. So basically what you are saying is that of the 42 wins we have, none of the were against good teams?

by osbug on Jun 26, 2007 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Concerned About Peavy?

I know a lot of the focus here is on our offense, as it should be, but most of our pitchers have had a lousy June. For example, after being nearly unhittable in May, this month Jake is 2-1 (with two no-decisions), has a 3.75 ERA and just 28 K's in five starts. He's really only had one good start this month (against Tampa) and looked pretty average after the second inning Sunday in one of the most important games of the still-young season.

I don't want to get over-anxious about this and he'll probably bounce back. But as of late he's looked a lot more like Peavy '06 than in the first two months of the season.

by SolanaPadsFan on Jun 26, 2007 2:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

taking dives

Sunday's game was tough cause he took those two dives really early. I gotta believe that took something out of him. Also, falling behind wasn't so good as it looked to me like he started pressing.

Got caught up in the hype I think.

by Dex on Jun 26, 2007 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

RBS

In all fairness, I wouldn't throw "And we didn't face Schilling" in there. Because of Schilling's injury, we got Beckett instead. I'd rather face Schilling than Beckett any day.

by Drama on Jun 26, 2007 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Schilling's a tool

We also got a lot of runs of Wakefield/Mirabelli.

by Billy Almon on Jun 26, 2007 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

schilling is a much tougher pitcher than wakefield

by RBS on Jun 26, 2007 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

they've both been pretty bad this season

schilling was getting rocked before he went on the DL.

by goose1 on Jun 26, 2007 6:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Are you REALLY

judging how we stack up against the Red Sox based on three games? One game where we lost by one run? Apparently the Red Sox offense isn't so great either then, considering they scored seven runs over three games.

by osbug on Jun 26, 2007 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes. No.

Baseball is full of paradoxes.

And if the Linebrink run hadn't come in last night, we would be talking about Cameron's clutch hitting and not the team's lack of it.

by Billy Almon on Jun 26, 2007 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Khalil run?

by Drama on Jun 26, 2007 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Indeed

by Billy Almon on Jun 26, 2007 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Expected Wins-Losses (X W-L)

I could be mistaken, but I noticed that last season only about 53% of the league finished within +- 3 wins of their expected win totals.

I've also been playing around with some linear regression analyses to see just exactly how much variance in the season totals is explained by the X W-L formula, or RS^1.82((RS^1.82)+(RA^1.82)).

So far, it doesn't look very significant.

"At the end, excitement maintained its hysteria." - Jerry Coleman

by TheGrandHatching on Jun 26, 2007 3:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sarcasm

Obviously sarcasm doesn't go over well on the internet because half of you got it and the other half of you didn't. Since i'm going to assume that half of you aren't complete idiots, I have to assume that this is the case. In case you are an idiot, I apologize in advance, and offer you this is consolation. Sarcasm: 1. harsh or bitter derision or irony.
2. a sharply ironical taunt; sneering or cutting remark

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by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Jun 26, 2007 11:39 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I am not an idiot

but a complete jackass.

"Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!"

by Ron Mexico on Jun 26, 2007 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

you beat me to it, Ron

by RBS on Jun 26, 2007 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm an idiot

but only 50% of the time

by ABY on Jun 26, 2007 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

some of the people who post comments here

If you can't figure out that Dex's post was sarcastic, maybe you should re-take remedial 7th grade English for the fourth time instead of posting here.

"Winfield's head hits the wall! It's rolling toward second base!" - Jerry Coleman

by metalsupplier on Jun 26, 2007 1:06 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Wait...

So now we're not trading Peavy? What about the Shamu tank at Petco...we are still getting that though....right?? I'm confused.

by Drama on Jun 26, 2007 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Shamu

was asking too muchand wanted a six year contract. That is not the BIG signing we are hoping for.

by osbug on Jun 26, 2007 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

re: Shamu

Six years is crazy. I would have gone 5 with a club option...but six is just stupid...especially with a full no-trade clause.

I wonder how Shamu is gonna look in pinstripes.

by Drama on Jun 26, 2007 1:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Seattle

He wants to move back to Seattle to be with his family. Sea World is working out a trade for Ichiro. Curses! Our rival to the north and our crosstown rivals at Sea World BOTh screwed us!

by osbug on Jun 26, 2007 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

stupid fish

by Drama on Jun 26, 2007 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You were going to club him!

by ABY on Jun 26, 2007 2:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

no, no ,no

you got me all wrong! We wanted to club Lou Seal, the Giants mascot. I could never club Shamu.

by RBS on Jun 26, 2007 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I call B.S. on that...

Shamu doesn't cost money, he MAKES money.

Honestly though, I'd be surprised if Seaworld was willing to lose him to a local competitor. it'd be quite a bidding war.

by pjbno4 on Jun 26, 2007 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hi, I'm new here.

Is this a baseball blog?

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by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Jun 26, 2007 1:57 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

yeah, but not much of one apparently.

the so-called padres fan who runs it wants to sell off our good players after a few series losses! What's up with that?

I mean, this guy probably doesn't even live in san diego!

by pjbno4 on Jun 26, 2007 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes.

And based on today: we're trading Jake Peavy, we lost out on a deal involving Shamu because we wouldn't gaurantee him five years, we have no hitting, Linebrink is to blame for last night's loss, we have one of the better offenses in baseball, Khalil is to blame for last night's loss, Red Sox fans are assholes, Dex is secretly a Yankees fan AND a Cards fan, Ron Mexico is a complete jackass, ABY is an idiot half the time and Winfields Ghost is missed by one and all.

Got it?

by Drama on Jun 26, 2007 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

we've gotten a lot accomplished today.

I'm proud of us.

JBUX all around!

by pjbno4 on Jun 26, 2007 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

uh oh

jbox is very sensitive about the "underlings" passing out jbux....be careful.

by Drama on Jun 26, 2007 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

to clarify

I was merely offering Jbox a potential course of action, based on the sheer volume of conclusions we've reached... I certainly didn't mean to imply that I had such powers myself...

by pjbno4 on Jun 26, 2007 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

How

are we supposed to sign a big bat if you give away all our JBUX?

by osbug on Jun 26, 2007 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

And you forgot

that sarcasm should not exist in blogs.

And for the record my earlier response was poking fun at the fact that Dex was reaching for material. That instead of posting a random artical to get people (who don't get sarcasm) to respond to, it would have been nice to see an artical about getting Dye or how rad Blum's hair is.

Maybe you should all refocus and figure out how to trade Khalil for Vizquel.

by GoPads on Jun 26, 2007 2:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

ummm...

focus?

us?

by pjbno4 on Jun 26, 2007 2:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

why does my head hurt now?

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by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Jun 26, 2007 2:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jacque Jones to the Marlins

A National League source is saying the Cubs sent Jacque Jones and an ass-load of cash to the Marlins for a Single A relief pitcher.

Obviously KT had zero interest in Jones, based on the fact that he finds relievers when he's buying a Big Gulp and a Slim Jim at 7/11.

by Drama on Jun 26, 2007 2:50 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

little known fact

KT found Kevin Cameron in his couch cushions, and got Royce Ring in a Cracker Jack box.

Unfortunately, this doesn't always work out. KT thought he was going to get a big bat before the trading deadline, but instead just ended up with a message that said "BE SURE TO DRINK YOUR OVALTINE".

by Boy Howdy on Jun 26, 2007 5:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

historical reference...clever

by RBS on Jun 27, 2007 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Breaking News

Padres sign Infielder Phil Nevin to help solve their offensive woes after losing 5 of 7 games.

Just Kidding...

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by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Jun 26, 2007 2:56 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

About run differential

I'm seeing that alot about it predicting win/loss.

I kept thinking about it...but isn't that like saying past performance is a measure of future performance...isn't that what we DON'T want to do in things like investing.

Another way to look at it...run differential is more a useful tool to see how much luck has played into our win loss record. In other words, the fact that we are below our win loss record based on our run differential on such a highly accurate statistic would imply some bad luck and that the team was even better than the record indicated.

That being said, past run differential doesn't imply future run differential and my point is that without a good hitting/consistent team, it won't be too long before we stop having the run differential to support the boasted "projected" win loss record.

If things normalize, I expect our pitching to correct somewhat, because admit it, they were as good as it got last month. If that is the case, as we are seeing in the latter part of June, then that run differential as we see it will not be good.

by bktabinga on Jun 26, 2007 3:26 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I can't tell

Are you being sarcastic? X W-L is obviously NOT a highly accurate statistic, and I believe it shows more than anything that it, as a model, only accounts for a fraction of the total variance in actual W-L.

See above for more.

"At the end, excitement maintained its hysteria." - Jerry Coleman

by TheGrandHatching on Jun 26, 2007 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

no...just that it gets mentioned so much

that I assume it is. My point is why do we care about run differential to justify that the team is "alright" and we should not worry.

Good pitching beats good hitting but good hitting beats sucky hitting.

by bktabinga on Jun 26, 2007 7:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

run differential

Runs are the most statistically significant statistic you can look at in determining win differential. They're so much so that people figure that they're completely correlated and that you have to determine other statistics to focus on to create runs and to prevent runs allowed (which in turn directly lead to wins and losses). People can try for OBP, slugging, clutch hitters or whatever, but in the end looking at how many runs you score vs how many runs you give up is a solid indicator how your team is doing.

Over a long long sample size, I'd bet that runs scored vs runs predicts for upwards of 99% of win differential.

My point is that having a power bat would be helpful, but there are plenty of teams that have power bats that won't be making it to the offseason this year. Plenty of teams with .300 hitters that won't make it to the offseason this year. But at the end of the season, if more than 1 of the top 4 teams in run differentials isn't in the playoffs, then it's because somebody had to win the NL Central.

by Dex on Jun 27, 2007 4:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

and my counter point is...

now that you've once again supported the argument that the RUN is king...my counterpoint is...with a NL worst team BA of .244, even considering PETCO, the second worst OBP ( I thought PETCO was supposed to be perfect for our doubles and line drives hitters, so why aren't guys in our lineup who hit those types of hits having averages above .300.)

how long can you even sustain the run production we have been generously getting. If run differential is a good correlator for wins, what is a good correlator for runs. Could it be that we are possibly "overperforming" based on just those two statistics, BA and OBP.

I am not looking for the next A-Rod. A consistent hitter. Remember when Mark Loretta batted a respectable .300+ for us in PETCO?!? What happened to those days? With BGiles back, maybe the lineup that we are searching for comes back.

by bktabinga on Jun 27, 2007 5:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

runs vs run differential

You still have to consider the differential. To me, the argument sounds like this: We're not scoring enough runs (even though we have an excellent record) so we need to give up pitching (potentially allowing more runs against us) to get more hitting (to potentially get more runs for us).

If we have to give up more runs to get more runs, then that doesn't help anything. Does it really matter if we win games 12-10 as opposed to 2-0? Because I'll be honest. I love our bullpen. It's not that deep.

by Dex on Jun 27, 2007 6:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thank you

This is what people are missing. There are plenty of teams that are out there with high scoring offenses that are failing miserably due to lack of pitching. There are very few teams in major league baseball that can afford to have the best pitching and the best hitting. There are even fewer that actually manage to pull it off.

As much as some people may want to ignore how much Petco distorts offensive (and for us to a lesser degree pitching) numbers, we have one of the top five offenses in the NL on the road when it comes to scoring runs. And even though our offensive numbers LOOK weak at home, we have outscored our opponents by 34 runs. It is getting really frustrating hearing people say we have the worst offense in the NL just because our batting average is low, or we don't score a lot of runs at home.

let's look at it this way, among the

Would a big bat help our offense? Um...whose offense couldn't use another big bat. It all comes down to what we have to give away. That being said, we do need at the very least more depth on our bench. The Michael Barrett trade was a good move, and hopefully a good start to some movement.

by osbug on Jun 27, 2007 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I hear ya...

I'm agreeing with most you say...I just like to play a little devils advocate because the one thing I disagree with, is the motive...people aren't just complaining for complaining sake, or are not that misguided. There are two years in a row of frustrating playoff performances and when you ask guys like Drama, etc., we want to see this team take it to the house.

We thought last year our pitching was solid and that would be enough but it wasn't.

People are just afraid of hanging on to the one real strength this team has had for the last few years and having it come up short.

In the end, this team is NOT the same team as last year, the pitching is 10 times better than it was last year, and I could realistically see this team making it to the Big Show with what we have on the field now.

by bktabinga on Jun 27, 2007 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

2001 Diamondbacks

their (sarcasm alert) fearsome line-up in the World Series: Tony Womack, Craig Counsell, Luis Gonzalez, Matt Williams, Steve Finley, Reggie Sanders, Mark Grace, Damien Miller with Jay Bell, Danny Bautista, and David Dellucci coming off the bench. They won it with two starters who were so good, that they could count of them winning at least 3 games in a 7 game series. The Padres have that with Peavs and CY. No need to hit the panic button, but a smart move in July to bring in a solid bat to put somewhere between 3 and 5 in the order would help the team win the 4th game in a 7 game series.

by Pants on Jun 26, 2007 3:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I like your thinking

but I'm not sure that Peavy and CY are the dominating force that Johnson and Schilling were. If you think about it, a Peavy vs. Beckett re-match and a CY vs. Schilling (or Matsuzaka or, god forbid, Buehrle) matchup is anybody's for the taking.

It's been said before, and I'll say it again. We need that bat.

"At the end, excitement maintained its hysteria." - Jerry Coleman

by TheGrandHatching on Jun 26, 2007 3:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I disagree with both of you.

Anecdotally, no, Peavy and young aroen't RJ & Schill yet. But if you look at the numbers they put up through the year, and look at what the padres are doing now, we're right on par, as far as #1 & #2 go (and absurdly far ahead of the rest of their staff).

As for the dbacks offense in 2001, it was nothing to sneeze at. Gonzalez raked that year, and reggie sanders added 33 bombs of his own. Virtually everyone else (except womack) hit 15 bombs and hit .270. The finished 3rd in the NL in runs scored behind colorado (pre-humidor) and Houston.

by pjbno4 on Jun 26, 2007 4:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dog Days

Quit whining....This is how it is supposed to be - a scorching start with one of the best records in baseball turns into keystone cops swinging wildly like spastic 5 year olds at a T Ball. Better now than later in the season. Come Mid-August, things will gel, Cameron, Robot and Blummer will be ripping the cover off the ball and amazing us with their acrobatic diving triple plays. The Pads won't trade away pitching or pay big bats bucks. That is why they have 18 moneyball guys working in the front office. Now just repeat after me...unicorns, rainbows, hiram bocachica...unicorns....

by planetjeffy on Jun 26, 2007 4:50 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs