Coolstandings

by osbug on May 23, 2007 6:29 AM PDT

Did anybody else check out this link they had in one of the articles on padres.com?

They have a pretty favorable outlook for the Padres to make the playoffs. Currently the only team with better odds is the Mets. I didn't check out to see how accurate they were over the last couple seasons though.

This FanPost was written by a member of the Gaslamp Ball community and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Gaslamp Ball managers or SB Nation.

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How are they getting 8 more wins for us over LA?

especially considering the Dodgers have a better record in the division. Also, they've beaten us 4 of 6.

by RBS on May 23, 2007 8:50 AM PDT 0 recs

I hope you're just playing

devil's advocate...because the Dodgers can be ahead of us all they want, they'll still lose the division to the pads!

by bktabinga on May 23, 2007 8:56 AM PDT up 0 recs

RBS....

First Cameron...and now the entire Padres team? You've changed, man.

by Drama on May 23, 2007 9:14 AM PDT up 0 recs

i think he's been

hanging out with johnny dub.

by bktabinga on May 23, 2007 9:44 AM PDT up 0 recs

You've got me all wrong man!

that's not what I'm saying at all. We will beat the Dodgers and their fans and their PR department.

But I was curious as to how those projected wins were determined. Admittedly, I didn't look too far on that site to attempt to find out. but as it stands, the Dodgers DO have a better record in the division and HAVE beaten us 4 of 6. So if they are expanding on those numbers, how are we expected to win 9 more games?

I'm sure we will, and I'm sure that we'll handily take the season series from the Dodgers.

by RBS on May 23, 2007 3:03 PM PDT up 0 recs

Dodgers

It's because our run differential is quite a bit better than the Dodgers. They do take into account past performance, but it is wieghted less the further back they look.

by osbug on May 23, 2007 9:36 AM PDT up 0 recs

well thats good

A helpful explanation of the situation, thank you.

Is head to head competition weighted at all?

by RBS on May 23, 2007 3:05 PM PDT up 0 recs

Not sure

but it doesn't look like they take it into account. They do weight recent performance more than past performance, so the fact that the Padres are playing better baseball right now probably has some affect on it. They sim each season a million times though. Also, yes the Dodgers have a better record head to head, but not by much. If that extreme extra innings game had taken a different bounce, we would be even with them. So over a million sims it evens out.

by osbug on May 24, 2007 6:07 AM PDT up 0 recs