Analysis and Optimism

by RBS on Mar 7, 2007 8:28 AM PST Comment 14 comments

http://www.teamsimbro.com/PadresStatisticalAnalysis.xls
Click on this link to view the Excel sheet.

This is a statistical comparison of the 2006 starters who left with their likely 2007 replacements, based on 2006 offensive stats, using these players:
Piazza replaced by Bard
Barfield replaced by Giles
Castilla replaced by Kouzmanoff
Roberts replaced by Jose Cruz

Castilla's numbers for 06 were used because he played more innings at third than anyone else. Jose Cruz is used because no other left field option had 100 at bats last year.

Here's how I see it:
Bard vs. Piazza - we lose quite a bit of power, but may improve our avg with Bard.

Giles vs. Barfield - a wash. slightly lower batting avg, HR, and stolen bases. Did you know that Barfield stole 21 last year?

Kouz vs. Castilla - not really fair, with Kouz having only 56 big league at bats, and no one else shined at third. with 500 AB's, kouz may be a masher, but he's young and unproven. should be interesting to watch, though I don't see how we can say we've definitively improved our offense at third base.

Cruz vs. Roberts - this one is hard to stomach, even if Sledge or McAnulty or Cust wins the job. we lost 60 points on the batting avg., 44 stolen bases,but picked up 60 points in SLG. it appears left field is our greatest weakness right now.

We are replacing 3 of 8 starters, a significant percentage, and transitioning from one failed platoon situation (third base) to an unproven rookie with 56 MLB at bats. We've lost 2 key veterans with strong leadership in Piazza and Roberts, and replaced them with 1 veteran leader in Marcus Giles. We tossed out a promising young 2nd baseman in Barfield and received an equally promising yet less proven hitter in Kouzmanoff.

But I am an optimist, and while I think this spreadsheet shows that we have not made significant improvements, the situation is not as dire as I had originally believed.

My hope is that Kouz get 500 ABs and mashes 30 taters, Giles improves his 2006 avg from .262 to his career avg of .285, and Bard shows his .338 avg was not a fluke.

We could win this year, though a midseason offensive pickup would certainly improve our chances.

What does everyone else think?

This FanPost was written by a member of the Gaslamp Ball community and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Gaslamp Ball managers or SB Nation.

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Its going to be interesting....

The Dr. was an offensive spark plug that is going to be difficult to replace. So far Sledge is looking good this spring (and so is P. Mac for that matter). I'm really hoping Sledge will turn out to be a pleasant surprise. I am still bitter about letting the Dr. go. I have a feeling there will be a time down the stretch where we'll be wishing we had his veteran leadership and positive outlook in the clubhouse.

I really have no idea how the Kouz will turn out. Can't really be worse than what was going on last year though.

The loss of Piazza doesn't worry me too much. I think Bard can handle the job and now we'll actually be throwing out a runner or two.

Personally I liked Barfy and would rather see him in there than M. Giles, but at the same time the amusement of 2 Giles bros on 1 team might make the trade worth it.

by wait till next year on Mar 7, 2007 10:03 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Perhaps

Perhaps, wait till next year, just maybe Kouz will mash and Marcus will tear it up and the Vulcan will hit .400, and you'll have to change you name to "done waiting, bring on October"

Go Pads!

by RBS on Mar 7, 2007 10:25 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

well

padres rookies are a mixed bag as well. let us not forget sean burroughs, who made almost everyone i know believe we had a 3rd bagger for the next decade. that's just one example...i'm sure we could drag up 100 more.
of course, you could probably do that for almost every team in the league as well, but it's my team that stings the most, eh?

i think this will be an interesting test of the coaches as well, with less veteran leadership...tho i think CY is going to end up as a strong leader on the team. does anyone know what maddux is like in the clubhouse?

-- I believe I'm a chicken!

by garth on Mar 7, 2007 10:30 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

As a straight comparison...

This is pretty good, but I honestly think that we actually improve in all of those spots except second base. Cruz is a little unfair as I think everybody expects Sledge to win the job in left field. From what I understand, Kouz has some huge potential and is a definite upgrade from what we attempted to pass at third last year.

Also, when we're doing comparisons, we gotta look at how they're likely going to be used in the lineup and stuff.

by Dex on Mar 7, 2007 10:46 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

I think...

You didn't mention defense once in your entire "analysis..." ? :) I know it's not important, but it's worth mentioning.

I'd rather Barfield than Giles any day, but Giles does have more defensive experience at second base. He turned a pretty double play yesterday, in fact, that Barf might have struggled with.

Also, and shame on you for not mentioning this, our defensive upgrade at Catcher is HUGE. Mike Piazza would have had trouble throwing out a blind and one-legged Chone Figgins doing "the worm" from first to second. Bard is definitely a defensive upgrade, though probably not enough to make up for the loss of Piazza's offense.

And, 3b is hard to evaluate. Kouz is a downgrade from Castilla, but an upgrade from everybody else we had there. Still, he needs to prove himself.

As for the outfield - J.Cruz/Sledge have yet to prove themselves, but I was always pretty comfortable with The Doctor in the outfield. I worry that we'll slide a little there, too :(

by Brad on Mar 7, 2007 11:37 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Sorry

I dont know why I was all grumpy when I wrote that. I sorta sounded like an asshole. Sorry ;)

by Brad on Mar 7, 2007 11:51 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

This was strictly an offensive analysis

I expect our defense to be good enough to excellent, our pitching is outstanding, so this comparison was strictly offensive.

Asshole :)

by RBS on Mar 7, 2007 12:10 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

And I don't think you are an a-hole

by RBS on Mar 7, 2007 12:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Another reason for optimism

Hopefully there will be more Khalil and less Blum at SS this year, which would be a big upgrade. And there's no conceivable way that Kouzmanoff could be worse than Castilla. Castilla was horrible. Awful. Atrocious. If Kouzmanoff isn't better than Castilla, Branyan will quickly be getting at bats and he'll be better than Castilla.

by benrb on Mar 7, 2007 1:37 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

If Kouz isn't better than Castilla...

...then he'll be in AAA for another year

Relax, all right? Don't try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.

by TheRevRun on Mar 7, 2007 4:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

3B

you don't see how we've improved offensively at 3rd? I might argue that not fielding a third baseman would be a definite offensive upgrade from Castilla.

Is there any precedent for only having 8 men on the field?

by pjbno4 on Mar 7, 2007 3:33 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

can i also point out....

...about the 3B situation (i hesitate to mention the man's name, for fear of summoning his wretched spirit) that for an un-godly amount of time last year we actually had mark 'mighty .190' bellhorn at third base?

sure, vinny didn't hit. but i think chan ho park and his bleeding guts had a higher batting average than bellhorn last year.

by goose1 on Mar 7, 2007 4:21 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Marcus and Sledge may

be surprising offensive upgrades. If we can do better than .245 at SS and .180 - .200 at 3b - the Pads could see dramatic improvements in the middle and end of the line up, when we would normally leave men on base. If not, and the 5 starters stay healthy...then who cares.

by planetjeffy on Mar 7, 2007 7:42 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Holding pattern

Unless the Kouz bats worse than Bellhorn or Castilla, then it is an upgrade at the position. I just hope it works outs defensively. I don't like the fact that we lost speed in the off-season. The loss of the Dr. and Barf and replacing them with Marcus Giles and Sledge/Nuts is a big concern. Without power or speed, it feels like that the team has to score a majority of their runs off singles and walks and some doubles. I keep an a bad feeling that we will see a lot of runners stranded on third since said runner is too slow to score from second on a single. I agree, that as a whole, the bats are about the same as last season (please, Bard, hit like you did last year). The pitching staff has slightly improved with experience and the presence of Maddux. I head into this season with cautious optimism (again).

by Pants on Mar 8, 2007 11:15 AM PST reply actions 0 recs