A Look Forward: Padres' 2007-08 Offseason

by JollyWaffle on Oct 2, 2007 5:57 PM PDT Comment 38 comments

This might be a little too early for some of you, especially when the real playoffs haven't even started yet, but since I love the trading/free agency/draft aspects of the offseason, talking about it really helps me forget about certain things that happen on certain 163rd games of certain winning seasons.

To start, let's look at the roster and point out any holes that need filling:

Offense:
C: Josh Bard, Michael Barrett
Bardo had a decent offensive year, and Barrett will be a free agent. I don't think I'd feel too bad with having Bard back next year, but Barrett really scuffled as a Padre. Are we willing to take the chance that he'll return to '05-'06 form? I say yes. But all of it depends on how we approach the free-agent market for catchers which is surprisingly deep. Posada, Kendall, Lo Duca, and Ausmus could be solid options. It also wouldn't hurt to have a catcher that can throw out base-runners.

1B: Adrian Gonzalez
I think we're set here.

2B: Geoff Blum, Marcus Giles
Second base and left field are the two main positions to be looked at this year. Marcus Giles has an option for '08, and Geoff Blum did pretty good for us down the stretch. However, I will not feel comfortable at all with him starting on Opening Day. Do we pick up Miles' option? Or do we pursue another second baseman? As much as I love having the Giles brothers together, I wouldn't cry too much if we let Giles go. He's on a slow decline right now and I don't see him coming out of it.
In free agency, guys like Tadahito Iguchi, Luis Castillo, Marlon Anderson, and Mark Loretta make up for some interesting options. MLB4U predicts that the Padres will sign both Iguchi and Anderson, and also re-sign Giles. This scenario makes no sense. If I'm KT, I go out and sign Iguchi or Loretta, and let Giles go. He had his audition, and he dropped the ball. Iguchi did well for the Phillies after being traded and the Padres have had interest in him in the past. I think he's my favorite choice.

3B: Kevin Kouzmanoff, Morgan Ensberg
Isn't it nice to finally feel confident about the third base position in the offseason? We haven't had that in a while. Kouz will be our third baseman next year. As for Ensberg, he seems pretty happy to be a Padre and is willing to be a bench player next year I believe. He didn't do a whole lot for us beyond his 2-homer game, but I'd be fine with keeping him around.

SS: Khalil Greene
No problems here.

LF: Milton Bradley, Scott Hairston, Terrmel Sledge
This position will mostly depend on whether or not Bradley will be able to play on Opening Day. From what I've heard, he won't. It'll also depend on how much KT wants to gamble on an injury-prone/short-tempered/offensive beast like Milton. Is he worth it? Only time will tell. Hairston obviously was a key player after coming over here, so I expect him to stick around and become the greatest 4th outfielder the game has ever seen. Also, the Sledge experiment didn't work out. I say we send him down to AAA and let some real back-up outfielders come in.
Potential free-agent left-fielders include: Luis Gonzalez, Shannon Stewart, Brad Wilkerson, Moises Alou (has option), Geoff Jenkins (has option), and Adum Dunn (has option as well). Not a great list. Dunn won't help our strikeout problem, Wilkerson had a bad year, Gonzalez is getting old, and so is Alou. Makes you kinda want us to keep Bradley around.

CF: Mike Cameron, Brady Clark
As many know, Cameron will be a free agent. Also entering free agency as a CF will be the likes of Aaron Rowand, Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter, and Kenny Lofton. Now, you've got a problem here. You could try to re-sign Cameron and get back a great glove and 20-20 potential, or you could point out his high strikeout numbers and decide to look elsewhere. Jones will NOT accept a 1-year deal according to Borass, so he's out unless the Padres want to spend big time money to get him. Rowand to me seems like a solid guy at CF or even LF if it comes down to it. Hunter might be out of the Padres' price range unless he takes an SD discount. This will be one of the more interesting positions to watch this off-season. Stay tuned!

RF: Brian Giles
The Naked Giles will return

Pitching:

Jake Peavy
Chris Young
Greg Maddux (optioned picked up)
Bret Tomko?
Jack Cassel?

Once again, the Padres are stuck trying to get a 4th and 5th starter. Tomko will be a free agent, Cassel doesn't seem to be ready to pitch a full season in the bigs, Germano may or may not return to his early form, and who knows what's up with Clay. To be honest, I don't think Tomko is a terrible option as a 5th starter at least. All that talk of improved mechanics when he came to the Padres has me thinking that he won't be too bad. Regardless, lets take a look at the free agent market for starters:

Tony Armas (30) - $5MM mutual option for '08
Kris Benson (33) - $7.5MM club option for '08
Paul Byrd (37) - $8MM club option for '08
Shawn Chacon (30)
Roger Clemens (46)
Matt Clement (33)
Bartolo Colon (35)
Josh Fogg (31)
Casey Fossum (30)
Freddy Garcia (32)
Tom Glavine (42) - $9MM player option for '08
Livan Hernandez (33)*
Jason Jennings (29)
Joe Kennedy (29)
Byung-Hyun Kim (29)
Brian Lawrence (32)
Jon Lieber (38)
Kyle Lohse (29)
Rodrigo Lopez (32)
Eric Milton (32)
Tomo Ohka (32)
Russ Ortiz (34)
Odalis Perez (31) - $9MM club option for '08
Andy Pettitte (36) - $16MM player option for '08
Joel Pineiro (29)
Kenny Rogers (43)
Curt Schilling (41)
Carlos Silva (29)
Julian Tavarez (35) - $3.85MM club option for '08
John Thomson (34)
Brett Tomko (35) - $4.5MM mutual option for '08
Steve Trachsel (37) - $4.75MM club option for '08
Koji Uehara (33)
Jeff Weaver (31)
Kip Wells (31)
Randy Wolf (31) - $9MM club option for '08
Jamey Wright (34)
Jaret Wright (32)

The only ones I'd give a contract to are Livan Hernandez (Padre killer), Jason Jennings, Freddy Garcia, Randy Wolf, Bartolo Colon, and Freddy Garcia. Bu the pitcher market will be expensive again, so I'm not sure how the Padres would approach it. If I'm KT, I try to get Livan Hernandez and then re-sign Tomko.

Bullpen:
Not much to say here. I know some of you want Hoffman's head on a stick but he'll likely return next year. Brocail will be a free agent, but the Padres can easily re-sign him. Other than that, most of the guys will be back. Meredith, Hampson, Thatcher, Cameron, Bell, etc. will make for a great bullpen next year. But that shouldn't stop Towers from working his bullpen magic and getting more guys for nothing.

I hope I'm not stepping on the toes of GLB's brass by posting this, cause maybe you guys were going to do something similar. I just wanted to occupy myself to get my mind off of Monday night. This definitely helped.

So feel free to discuss the offseason and such. As an added bonus, here are some things I'd like to see the Padres improve for next year:

LESS STOLEN BASES AGAINST US
Less strikeouts from the offense.
More speed
Better end of the rotation
Get another big bat

Also, there's some helpful links to check out for you armchair GMs out there.

- Up to date rumors listed by player

- An in-depth list of potential free agents as well as predictions for where they'll go

- Another list of rumors (better than first link)

- A simpler look at free agents listed by position

This FanPost was written by a member of the Gaslamp Ball community and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Gaslamp Ball managers or SB Nation.

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Comments

Great post - my thoughts...

I think Jason Lane will be a factor in the CF discussions as well. I also know there'll probably be talk of moving Hairston to 2B (his position when he joined the DBacks) or giving Antonelli a shot.

The biggest question mark in my mind is the rotation. I honestly have no idea where that'll end up aside from Jake, CY, and Maddux so I'll just let others talk about that.

by matto619 on Oct 2, 2007 6:08 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I totally forgot about Lane

I consider him mainly a bench option. If we really can't land any of those free agents, I don't know if I'd be too comfortable with him on Opening Day.

I also ignored all our prospects at Double-A. Are any of them really ready for the bigs? And can Chase Headley play second?

by JollyWaffle on Oct 2, 2007 6:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Free agent 2B

Brooks Conrad!

by Dex on Oct 2, 2007 6:18 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

How about some of our own minor leaguers?

Chase Headley for backup on 3rd.
Matt Antonelli for 2B.
Colt Morton backup catcher.
Will Venable backup OF.
and the boatload of arms we have traded for this year.

Then we can have some money to go after a star CF.

by planetjeffy on Oct 2, 2007 6:43 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

My ideal starting lineup for 08

Batting order:

Matt Antonelli 2b
Josh Bard C
Brian Giles RF
Adrian Gonzalez 1B
Andruw Jones CF
Khalil Greene SS
Kevin Kouzmanoff 3B
Scott hairston LF

Pitching order:

Jake Peavy
Chris Young
Greg Maddux
Josh Geer
Wade Leblanc

Bullpen:

7th: Cla Meridith
8th: Joe Thatcher
9th Heath Bell

There's always next year son

by sdpads24 on Oct 2, 2007 6:50 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Silva/dunn

Well, Silva wouldn't be a terrible pick-up in a field like Petco. Everyone looks at his terrible statistics last year, but this year he was decent 13-14, 4.19 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 106 ERA+.. and he gave up 16 less HRs. There won't be much of a market out there for him too, so he could be a viable option.

I know strikeouts hurt but theres more damage that can be done by say, grounding into double plays, so a player like Adam Dunn wouldn't be a terrible option, people look WAY to much at his K's.. you can't argue with:
.264/.386/.554 okay, so he struck out 160+ times.. but he also walked 101, and another 40 HR season. So he would help alot.

Yay Twins... Yay Padres!

by CARXRiedmann on Oct 2, 2007 7:29 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm pretty sure

that the events of last nite's game prove that this team needs credible outfielders.

I think Lofton for 2 years is a good stop gap, but this team badly needs an up-and-coming CF stud.

I'd pursue Wolf as a FA, and possible Dave Bush or AJ Burnett via trade.

by Phantom on Oct 2, 2007 8:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

Dunn in Petco wouldn't be all that pretty.. ugh.

Yay Twins... Yay Padres!

by CARXRiedmann on Oct 3, 2007 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nice work JW

The only positions I'd beef up would catcher and CF. Here's what I'd like to see, and given the SD discount these may be possible.

C- I'd like to see Jason Kendall in place of Barrett. If CHC is still paying for part of his salary for the trade from OAK, maybe KT can work his magic and pick him at a sizeable discount?

CF- Corey Patterson looks like a good backup if Cameron doesn't sign with Pads next season.

Matt Holliday never touched the plate and Tim McClellan knows it.

by sqrunt on Oct 2, 2007 8:51 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

There are some terrible pitchers

on that list. Truly terrible.

by goose1 on Oct 2, 2007 9:22 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

And thanks for listing them

What I'm pretty eager to see is that secret Kevin Towers signing that makes no real sense to us. After all the big names are trotted around and over-paid, we're going to see someone on our roster we've never heard of....and he's going to have a break-out year. I'll call it the Heath Bell Sleeper trade.

At first glance, it doesn't look like there's a ton on the free agent market that can help our 4/5 starter situation. Maybe there are some guys on that list with good peripherals who'd thrive at Petco....but I can't say that I'd be bouncing off the walls to get any of them. Who's overlooked? Who should we be shooting for?

by goose1 on Oct 2, 2007 10:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nice write-up.

Once I can stand to think about baseball again, I'll probably have thoughts on it other than that it was solid.

E-mail me

by Richard Wade on Oct 2, 2007 9:53 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

a good write-up, but

I'd like to go on the record as saying that Kendall, Lo Duca, and Ausmus would not be solid options for catcher. I'd much rather have a miscallenous AAA player than any of those 3.

by pjbno4 on Oct 3, 2007 6:37 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Lo Duca

is terrible. I have no interest.

by goose1 on Oct 3, 2007 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

CF

WHAT ABOUT BRADY "AS FEATURED ON NBC'S TO CATCH A PREDATOR" F*CKING CLARK???? WHY DON'T WE SIGN HIM???? OH WAIT, I REMEMBER!!! GAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHH KILL ME

by Dalton on Oct 3, 2007 8:17 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Remember how you didn't know who he was?

Well. Now you're never going to forget Brady Clark.

by goose1 on Oct 3, 2007 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

10,000 spoons when all I need is a knife

by Dalton on Oct 3, 2007 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

SCHILLING?!?

by Mr Meadows on Oct 3, 2007 9:23 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Maddux

has a playe option for next year, not a club option.
I think Antonelli will be the starting 2b. Kouz may move to the outfield, Headly could be given a shot a 3b. The pitching market is brutal. Matt Latos?

"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day. " ~Frank Sinatra

by Sammy G on Oct 3, 2007 10:35 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree

The 2B spot is going to be Antonelli's if he can have a decent spring.

Lots of good talent in San Antonio right now. I think we're gonna see a bunch more minor league guys promoted at different times next year and given a chance.

by Winfield's Ghost on Oct 3, 2007 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maddux Contract

Okay it is a $6M player option or a $11M Club Option. I think the Padres will probably pick up the Club option.

"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day. " ~Frank Sinatra

by Sammy G on Oct 3, 2007 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Marcus

I thought he was a question mark for next year, but this Padres.com article makes the definitive statement that he will NOT be returning in 2008:

http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071002&content_id=2245828&vkey=news_sd &fext=.jsp&c_id=sd

Do they know something we don't? (Not that I'm terribly broken up over it.)

by Mr Meadows on Oct 3, 2007 11:32 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

The MLB article also says

Bradley and Cameron likely won't be back. I've heard or read (it's all a blurrrr) that the Pads would like Bradley back.

by planetjeffy on Oct 3, 2007 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I read that

as they won't BOTH be back. Although I seem to think that Bradley will sign with us.

by Phantom on Oct 3, 2007 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who the hell else will take him?

Plus, I think he likes it here. At least he hasn't lashed out with any bridge burning remarks like he did toward Beane and Oakland. He is a superstar (minus the injuries and temper). Do they make horse blinders for ball players?

by planetjeffy on Oct 3, 2007 2:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

i read

(i forget where now) that towers wants both of them back, but obviously that doesn't really mean they actually will be back.

"i kinda feel like nevin and klesko were some fling we (the padres) had in the past and now realize were a bad idea and are embarrassed about."

by freelunch on Oct 3, 2007 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

my ideal lineup for 2008

Batting order:

1.) Brian Giles RF
2.) Mark Loretta 2B
3.) Adrian Gonzalez 1B
4.) Andruw Jones CF
5.) Khalil Greene SS
6.) Kevin Kouzmanoff 3B
7.) Josh Bard C
8.) Scott Hariston LF

Pitching rotation:

Jake Peavy
Chris Young
Greg Maddux
Livan Hernandez
Clay Hensley or Jack Cassel

Bullpen:

7th Cla Meredith
8th Heath Bell
9th Trevor Hoffman

Peavy or Young for Cy Young award!

by jonathan08 on Oct 3, 2007 1:54 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

No Jones.

He won't take a one year deal and SD's not gonna pay him what Boras is asking.

by TheThirdGonzalez on Oct 3, 2007 3:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Boras pisses me off.

He pulls this shit every year. I guess in reality, he is good at what he does for a living, but that doesn't stop him from coming off as a huge prick.

It's time to crane kick someone in the f*cking face. -goose

by JBro12 on Oct 3, 2007 3:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It won't happen

$20 mil a year... seven years. Nope.

Yay Twins... Yay Padres!

by CARXRiedmann on Oct 3, 2007 4:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

loretta

i don't know why you guys insist about talking about him. if KT liked him, he would never have been let go. KT has had 1000 chances to get him back and he hasn't. let it go.

Let's go drink some beer.

by sdsuaztec4 on Oct 3, 2007 4:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

loretta is amazing

gets on base
doesn't Strikeout much
great team leader, real mature player

-not too shabby there defensively
- a little old, but he's OK

- Danny

by Padres fanatic92014 on Oct 3, 2007 7:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

i didn't say anything about the type of player

i said the padres front office doesn't want anything to do with him.

Let's go drink some beer.

by sdsuaztec4 on Oct 3, 2007 7:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

My ideal lineup

Ideally for me:

Brian Giles - RF
Tadahito Iguchi - 2B
Aaron Rowand - CF
Adrian Gonzalez - 1B
Milton Bradley - LF
Khalil Greene - SS
Kevin Kouzmanoff - 3B
Josh Bard - C

Does that look good or what? Iguchi could be a gamble, so Antonelli also seems like a great option that would cost less. But this right lineup doesn't have any easy out anywhere.

Pitching:

Jake Peavy
Chris Young
Greg Maddux
Jason Jennings
Brett Tomko

by JollyWaffle on Oct 3, 2007 5:14 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Jennings and Tomko...

both scare me.

But I know there isn't a whole lot out there...

I'm really looking, like I said, for a surprise here--a triple A guy, a converted reliever...anything.

The Yankees are stacked with young pitching (Hughes, Chamberlain, Kennedy etc. etc.) and I know we claimed Kei Igawa off waivers earlier this season. I wonder if he gets the chance to re-invent himself in San Diego--New York is hell on players. He had good strike-out numbers in Japan and he'd be less of a liability for HRs pitching at Petco.

by goose1 on Oct 3, 2007 9:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tomko

doesn't scare me nearly as much as Jennings. That dude's career peripherals are just awful, Coors or not. His career WHIP is over 1.5 with a K/BB rate of 1.5.

That's not gonna get it done, even at PETCO.

by Phantom on Oct 4, 2007 8:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jason

"11 runs in the 1st" Jennings? The Padres want to FACE that guy on the mound, not have him pitch FOR them!

by Mr Meadows on Oct 4, 2007 11:52 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Cameron Won't Be Back

This is one of the Ferris Bueller "I heard from my sister's cousin's boyfriend's little brother" things, BUT.....

My best friend who works for Vons was talking to a guy who works at the store where Mike has been shopping this season. Says that he would just shoot the shit with him whenever he came in, and asked him many a times if he would be back next season.

Mike's response was along the lines of "I want to come back, but they don't want me...."

This time of year, there's a ton of posturing going on, both by players & agents AND front offices.

Once we get through the playoffs and World Series, it'll be time for the money to start talking.

by jpleeg2 on Oct 4, 2007 10:32 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs