Pads to sign Bellhorn, Brazelton and Sikorski

by jbox on Dec 21, 2005 10:26 PM PST in News

Thanks to Anonymous Hero for pointing this out in the comment thread.

Right-hander Brian Sikorski, who spent the past five seasons pitching in Japan, is expected to sign with the Padres on Thursday, FOXSports.com has learned.

The Padres also are expected to announce the signings of free-agent second baseman Mark Bellhorn and right-hander Dewon Brazelton to one-year deals.

They are saying that Bellhorn will probably be the regular guy at 2nd base, unless he is beat out by one of Barfield. Sikorski will take over for Aki and Brazelton will battle it out for a job in the Pen.

Contrary to popular belief Sikorski didn't invent the helicopter, that was Igor Sikorsky.

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Comments

Me

Bellhorn's good. Will drive in more runs, but will strike out lots too. I'm still pulling for Barfield though

by mato on Dec 22, 2005 7:00 AM PST reply actions

Someone refresh my memory.

Why did we trade Loretta?

by Emcee Emmerson on Dec 22, 2005 9:02 AM PST reply actions

Loretta...

is good...a solid player. A clubhouse leader who's worst season's numbers were better than Bellhorn's best season's numbers, outside of power (and don't look for Bellhorn to smack 27 HR's in Petco).

I understood the move when it was making room for Barfield. I understood the move when it was about saving some money.

But now both of those aspects have been thrown out the window, and we're left without a serious team leader who doesn't strike out in over 1 in every 3 at bat's. (gawd, between Bellhorn and Cameron there's going to be more than an offshore breeze whippin' through Petco next year).

by Emcee Emmerson on Dec 22, 2005 9:40 AM PST reply actions

Bellhorn vs Barfield

Maybe they're just trying to make Barfield earn that second base spot like what they did with Khalil and... Vizquael was it? He'll beat out Bellhorn for the second base job and it'll be the magic feather that will allow him to fly all through the big top of the season.

by Dex on Dec 22, 2005 10:29 AM PST up reply actions

Ordonez

It was teh Rey.

by Emcee Emmerson on Dec 22, 2005 11:11 AM PST up reply actions

What do the strikeouts matter?

They're really no different than any other kind of out...

Future Friars

Friar Faithful

by Richard Wade on Dec 22, 2005 2:53 PM PST up reply actions

99.99% of the time...

a strikeout is NOT a "productive out". A ground-out or fly-out, or a simple sacrifice, allows an opportunity for any runners to advance a base and/or score (and also forces the defense to make a play). 0.01% of the time a strikeout is productive if it takes 10 or more pitches and pitch-count is a factor in the pitchers velocity and control.

by ranger31 on Dec 22, 2005 3:48 PM PST up reply actions

Productive outs aren't.

I'll dig up Cy's research for you.

Strikeouts also aren't groundball double plays and those matter more.

Future Friars

Friar Faithful

by Richard Wade on Dec 23, 2005 12:19 AM PST up reply actions

Found it.

Productive Outs Are Not Productive

Future Friars

Friar Faithful

by Richard Wade on Dec 23, 2005 2:02 AM PST up reply actions

Mark Twain is said to have coined the phrase...

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics". IMHO, the statistical analysis that you linked provides an apples to oranges analysis, not an apples to apples one, because it's underlying assumption is that all games are managed under the same run-scoring philosophy.

IMHO, there are really only two dominant run-scoring philosophies in baseball, what I call "Earl Weaver" (aka apples) and "Whitey Herzog" (aka oranges).

I define "Earl Weaver" as the manage for the 3-run homerun philosophy. The premise is get on base however you can then get driven in by the bomb. Others may refer to this as the American League philosophy and leads to aberations of nature such as the designated hitter.

I define "Whitey Herzog" as the small-ball philosophy. The premise is to "get him on, get him over, get him in". Others may refer to this as the National League philosophy and is Baseball the way God intended.

Again, IMHO, a statistical analysis that correlates run-scoring to "productive outs" is going to be biased towards the "Earl Weaver" because the DH would likely result in fewer productive outs and more home runs (and more strikeouts) because an "Earl Weaver" typically wouldn't call for a hitter to sacrifice. If the analysis found any positive or negative correlation between "productive outs" and runs scored within only "Earl Weavers" and only "Whitey Herzogs" then I would be more inclined to accept the results.

by ranger31 on Dec 23, 2005 8:47 AM PST up reply actions

My favorite Whitey Herzog quote:

You sweat out the free agent thing in November then you make the trades in December. Then you struggle to sign the guys left in January and in February I get down to sewing all the new numbers on the uniforms.

by ranger31 on Dec 23, 2005 11:28 AM PST up reply actions

My favorite Earl Weaver quote:

The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers.

by ranger31 on Dec 23, 2005 11:31 AM PST up reply actions

You do realize that...

OPS is being held constant in the study, right?

Future Friars

Friar Faithful

by Richard Wade on Dec 24, 2005 9:23 AM PST up reply actions

Yes...

and IMHO that isn't an adequate control because it incorporates a bias in favor of the "Earl Weavers". It makes fruit salad, so you end up analyzing apples to fruit salad and oranges to fruit salad, not apples to apples and oranges to oranges. That was the point I was trying to make in my response.

by ranger31 on Dec 24, 2005 4:59 PM PST up reply actions

There's not a bias...

toward the "Earl Weavers." The point made by the study is that "productive outs" negatively correlate with runs scored. That holds for a team no matter how high or low their OPS.

Future Friars

Friar Faithful

by Richard Wade on Dec 27, 2005 11:29 AM PST up reply actions

What he said

Plus they're depressing to watch. A punch in the jock because of joy, or a punch in the jock because of anguish is all a punch in the jock, but it ain't the same, Rich.

Sometimes you have to look outside of the stats to understand that pain in the jock, dude. Outside the stats.

by Emcee Emmerson on Dec 22, 2005 6:58 PM PST up reply actions

Bell Norm

We now have four backup second basemen ( Young, Hill, Blum, Bellhorn), in case Barfield doesn't make it. Young, Hill, Blum can play multiple positions and pinch hit. I think Second Base is is a battle between Bellhorn and Barfield. The problem is Barfield has no Major league experience, and you know what you get with Bellhorn. Personally, I wouldn't use Spring Training as the place to win a job for a rookie. So, maybe the Padres are going to give Barfield a chance to play on a part time basis to give him the experience he'll need to play every day. I wouldn't be to happy about this trade if I'm Hill. I sure he thought he had a good shot at starting at second before this trade. Should be an interesting battle to watch.

by Old Fart on Dec 23, 2005 9:49 AM PST reply actions

Bellhorn...

...not quite sure if he's the guy you want as your starting 2b. His production in 2004 was seemingly blown way out of proportion because of -- well, he was in Boston. Everything is magnified there...

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=3670

He's....just an average player. (I'd disagree that he was....terrible.....he's just not a big deal.) He'd be better coming off the bench. But, he can play 3B, if necessary.

by San Diego Smooth Jazz Man on Dec 26, 2005 9:02 PM PST reply actions